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Bundesliga · MW6Ref: Richard Hempel
Full time

This match had live commentary, stats and in-play prices; no momentum.

Schalke 04 0-1 FSV Mainz 05 result, stats and report

Schalke 04
Lost · xG 0.36
0 – 1
FT 02:55
Won · xG 0.98
FSV Mainz 05
Next: 1899 Hoffenheim v Schalke 04 · Sun 8 Nov · FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern München · Sat 7 Nov
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

The provider forecast gives FSV Mainz 05 win the highest 1X2 probability at 47.0%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

S04
28.5%
Draw
24.6%
FSV Mainz 05
47.0%
Both teams to score · Yes
55.6%
Over 2.5 goals
57.6%

Full-time forecast audit: FSV Mainz 05 win was the highest probability; the match result was FSV Mainz 05 win.

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorelost
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultwon
Over 1.5 goalslost
Over 2.5 goalslost
Over 3.5 goalswon
Full-time resultwon
Double chancewon
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveswon

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

28%
25%
47%
28.5%S04
24.6%Draw
47.0%FSV Mainz 05

Both Teams to Score

56%
Yes 55.6%No 44.4%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

58%
Yes 57.6%No 42.4%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
36%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
10.7%
1-2
8.3%
0-1
8.2%
2-1
6.9%
0-2
6.8%
0-0
6.3%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates FSV Mainz 05 or draw at 51.4%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 38.6%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 4.2%.

Double Chance

1X
42.3%
12
6.3%
X2
51.4%

Half-Time Result

S04
26.7%
Draw
38.6%
FSV Mainz 05
34.7%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
S04
Draw
FSV Mainz 05
S04
20.1%
4.8%
2.9%
Draw
9.3%
13.6%
13.0%
FSV Mainz 05
1.8%
5.3%
29.2%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
4.2%
No
95.8%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.