Football Value Bets This Week

Every signal where our model rates the price higher than the best UKGC bookmaker price.

Value picks live

Top edge

+16.0pp · unibet_uk

Average edge

+14.5pp

Average odds

10.00

Signals last refreshed 07:30 UK time

Quick read

2 value picks with average edge of +14.5pp at average price 10.00.
Top edge: ESP vs AUT (World Cup 2026), AUT win at 10.50 (Unibet, +16.0pp).
All picks settled automatically; full track record is on /predictions#accuracy.

Top-edge model probability: 50.9 %. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Top 3 value picks

Model rates AUT win at 50.9 % versus the market implied 9.5 %. Best price is 10.50 with Unibet.

Model rates BIH win at 52.8 % versus the market implied 10.5 %. Best price is 9.50 with Betfair.

Value picks this week

More predictions

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Value betting is the discipline of backing outcomes where the bookmaker's implied probability is lower than the true probability. The "edge" is the gap between the two. A bet at 2.00 carries an implied probability of 50 percent. If our model rates that outcome at 55 percent, the edge is 5 percentage points and the bet is theoretically positive expected value over the long run.

This page surfaces every fixture where our model rates an outcome higher than the best price across UKGC bookmakers, with a minimum edge of 3 percentage points. The list refreshes every 15 minutes as odds move. The bookmaker carrying the best price is labelled next to every pick so you know where to take the value before the line moves.

Value betting only works at scale and over time. A 5 percent edge does not guarantee a winning bet, it shifts the long-run expected value from negative to positive. You will lose individual bets that the model rates favourably. Stake conservatively, never chase losses, and read our value betting guide if you are new to the concept. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Bet responsibly. 18+.

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UEFA Champions League24 UEFA Europa League6 UEFA Europa Conference League27 Norwegian Eliteserien8 Swedish Allsvenskan16 World Cup 202610

Glossary

Model pick: The outcome our AI engine assigns the highest probability for a given match.
Value pick: An outcome where the best UKGC bookmaker price gives an implied probability lower than the model's estimate. We label a value pick when the edge is at least 3 percentage points.
Edge (pp): The percentage-point gap between the model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability. Higher edge means the market is more out of line with the model.
Best price: The highest decimal odds we found across UKGC-licensed bookmakers at the moment the page was rendered.
Implied probability: The probability implied by a decimal odds price. Computed as 1 divided by the decimal odds.

Frequently asked questions

What does "edge" mean?

Edge is the gap between the model's probability for an outcome and the bookmaker's implied probability. A 3pp edge means the model rates the outcome 3 percentage points higher than the price implies.

How is edge calculated?

Implied probability = 1 / decimal odds. Edge = model probability minus implied probability, expressed in percentage points.

Why is the minimum edge 3pp?

Below 3pp the cost of placing the bet (overround, time, opportunity cost) starts to eat the expected value. We use 3pp as a conservative floor.

Are value picks guaranteed to win?

No. Value picks shift the long-run expected value from negative to positive. You will lose individual bets. Discipline matters more than picking winners.

What bookmakers are included?

Only UKGC-licensed operators. The list rotates as our partnerships and the operators' market participation change.

How do I read a value pick?

Bet on the outcome labelled with the green VALUE pill at the price labelled with the bookmaker name. The edge tells you how much the model favours the bet over the price.