Football Value Bets This Week
Every signal where our model rates the price higher than the best UKGC bookmaker price.
- SUN18:00
Oviedo vs Deportivo AlavesLa Liga Β· Sun 17 May, 18:00+19.3ppValue pickOviedo win3.90 Β· betfair_ex_uk - WED20:30
Deportivo Alaves vs BarcelonaLa Liga Β· Wed 13 May, 20:30+15.0ppValue pickBarcelona win2.05 Β· williamhill - SAT14:30
1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga Β· Sat 16 May, 14:30+13.5ppValue pickFSV Mainz 05 win3.30 Β· unibet_uk - SUN13:30
Salzburg vs HartbergAustrian Bundesliga Β· Sun 17 May, 13:30+13.4ppValue pickHTB win11.00 Β· betfair_ex_uk - SUN13:00
Deportivo La CoruΓ±a vs FC AndorraLa Liga 2 Β· Sun 17 May, 13:00+13.2ppValue pickAND win5.00 Β· bet365 - SUN15:00
Everton vs SunderlandPremier League Β· Sun 17 May, 15:00+12.6ppValue pickSunderland win4.50 Β· bet365 - WED18:00
Villarreal vs SevillaLa Liga Β· Wed 13 May, 18:00+12.6ppValue pickVillarreal win2.10 Β· williamhill - SUN20:00
Nice vs MetzLigue 1 Β· Sun 17 May, 20:00+12.2ppValue pickMetz win8.00 Β· unibet_uk - SUN19:45
Sassuolo vs LecceSerie A Β· Sun 17 May, 19:45+12.0ppValue pickSassuolo win2.65 Β· bwin - SUN13:30
Heracles vs FC GroningenEredivisie Β· Sun 17 May, 13:30+11.3ppValue pickHeracles win5.00 Β· unibet_uk - FRI17:00
Vukovar vs VaraΕΎdinCroatian 1. HNL Β· Fri 15 May, 17:00+11.3ppValue pickVUK win3.80 Β· sport888 - SAT17:30
Granada vs BurgosLa Liga 2 Β· Sat 16 May, 17:30+10.9ppValue pickGRA win3.10 Β· bet365 - SUN14:30
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga Β· Sun 17 May, 14:30+10.8ppValue pickBCS win4.10 Β· bwin - SUN20:00
Lyon vs LensLigue 1 Β· Sun 17 May, 20:00+10.4ppValue pickLens win3.90 Β· betvictor - SUN13:30
SC Heerenveen vs AjaxEredivisie Β· Sun 17 May, 13:30+10.3ppValue pickSC Heerenveen win3.30 Β· bet365 - THU19:00
Girona vs Real SociedadLa Liga Β· Thu 14 May, 19:00+10.2ppValue pickReal Sociedad win3.35 Β· unibet_uk - SUN14:30
Hannover 96 vs NΓΌrnberg2. Bundesliga Β· Sun 17 May, 14:30+10.1ppValue pickNUR win6.50 Β· betfair_ex_uk - SAT14:30
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SVBundesliga Β· Sat 16 May, 14:30+9.8ppValue pickHamburger SV win9.50 Β· betfair_ex_uk - SAT15:15
Ceuta vs MΓ‘lagaLa Liga 2 Β· Sat 16 May, 15:15+9.6ppValue pickCEU win4.00 Β· sport888 - SAT14:30
Borussia MΓΆnchengladbach vs 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga Β· Sat 16 May, 14:30+9.1ppValue pickBorussia MΓΆnche win4.40 Β· unibet_uk - SUN20:00
Lorient vs Le HavreLigue 1 Β· Sun 17 May, 20:00+9.0ppValue pickLorient win2.60 Β· coral - SAT14:30
SC Freiburg vs RB LeipzigBundesliga Β· Sat 16 May, 14:30+9.0ppValue pickSC Freiburg win2.70 Β· betfair_ex_uk - SUN15:00
Brentford vs Crystal PalacePremier League Β· Sun 17 May, 15:00+8.9ppValue pickCrystal Palace win4.33 Β· bet365 - SAT15:00
TBC vs TBCEFL Championship Β· Sat 16 May, 15:00+8.8ppValue pickTBC win4.60 Β· unibet_uk - FRI20:00
Aston Villa vs LiverpoolPremier League Β· Fri 15 May, 20:00+8.7ppValue pickAston Villa win3.00 Β· coral - SUN15:00
Leeds vs BrightonPremier League Β· Sun 17 May, 15:00+8.4ppValue pickLeeds win3.00 Β· bet365 - SAT17:30
AlmerΓa vs Las PalmasLa Liga 2 Β· Sat 16 May, 17:30+8.4ppValue pickALM win2.07 Β· unibet_uk - SAT15:00
Gorica vs OsijekCroatian 1. HNL Β· Sat 16 May, 15:00+8.3ppValue pickGOR win3.10 Β· bet365 - WED20:00
Hearts vs FalkirkScottish Premiership Β· Wed 13 May, 20:00+8.2ppValue pickFAL win7.50 Β· bet365 - SAT14:30
Bayern MΓΌnchen vs 1. FC KΓΆlnBundesliga Β· Sat 16 May, 14:30+8.1ppValue pickDraw10.00 Β· betfair_ex_uk - WED20:00
Lens vs Paris Saint GermainLigue 1 Β· Wed 13 May, 20:00+8.1ppValue pickLens win3.40 Β· bet365 - WED20:00
Manchester City vs Crystal PalacePremier League Β· Wed 13 May, 20:00+8.0ppValue pickCrystal Palace win15.00 Β· unibet_uk - SUN17:30
Club Brugge vs Union Saint-GilloiseBelgian Pro League Β· Sun 17 May, 17:30+8.0ppValue pickBRU win2.15 Β· coral
Value betting is the discipline of backing outcomes where the bookmaker's implied probability is lower than the true probability. The "edge" is the gap between the two. A bet at 2.00 carries an implied probability of 50 percent. If our model rates that outcome at 55 percent, the edge is 5 percentage points and the bet is theoretically positive expected value over the long run.
This page surfaces every fixture where our model rates an outcome higher than the best price across UKGC bookmakers, with a minimum edge of 3 percentage points. The list refreshes every 15 minutes as odds move. The bookmaker carrying the best price is labelled next to every pick so you know where to take the value before the line moves.
Value betting only works at scale and over time. A 5 percent edge does not guarantee a winning bet, it shifts the long-run expected value from negative to positive. You will lose individual bets that the model rates favourably. Stake conservatively, never chase losses, and read our value betting guide if you are new to the concept. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Bet responsibly. 18+.
Frequently asked questions
What does "edge" mean?
How is edge calculated?
Why is the minimum edge 3pp?
Are value picks guaranteed to win?
What bookmakers are included?
How do I read a value pick?
Predictions and value picks are informational context produced by a statistical model. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org or via the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133.