Skip to main content
Live
✦ SportSignals+ just now
Value SmartBetsNEW Props Predictions Live My Bets Alerts
Bundesliga · MW5 MEWA ARENA, MainzRef: Max Burda
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen result, stats and report

FSV Mainz 05
Lost · xG 2.72
3 – 4
FT 04:25
Won · xG 2.00
Bayer Leverkusen
Next: FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern München · Sat 7 Nov · Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart · Sat 31 Oct
Skip match sections

Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

FSV Mainz 05Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga

The provider forecast gives Bayer Leverkusen win the highest 1X2 probability at 38.7%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

FSV Mainz 05
36.8%
Draw
24.5%
Bayer Leverkusen
38.7%
Both teams to score · Yes
58.2%
Over 2.5 goals
56.9%

Full-time forecast audit: Bayer Leverkusen win was the highest probability; the match result was Bayer Leverkusen win.

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorewon
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultwon
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalswon
Over 3.5 goalslost
Full-time resultwon
Double chancewon
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveslost

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

37%
25%
39%
36.8%FSV Mainz 05
24.5%Draw
38.7%Bayer Leverkusen

Both Teams to Score

58%
Yes 58.2%No 41.8%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

57%
Yes 56.9%No 43.1%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
34%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
10.7%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
8.0%
1-0
7.5%
2-2
6.3%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates Bayer Leverkusen or draw at 48.8%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 37.5%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 6.2%.

Double Chance

1X
45.5%
12
5.7%
X2
48.8%

Half-Time Result

FSV Mainz 05
30.1%
Draw
37.5%
Bayer Leverkusen
32.4%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
FSV Mainz 05
Draw
Bayer Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05
23.2%
4.5%
3.1%
Draw
12.3%
13.6%
11.4%
Bayer Leverkusen
2.3%
5.9%
23.7%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
6.2%
No
93.8%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.