Derby xG 2026/27

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5 latest covered matches

The Derby xG picture

Updated 2 Nov 2026, 20:41 GMT

Across the 13 2026/27 matches with verified per-match xG, Derby scored 11 from 14.1 expected goals and conceded 25 from 25.9 expected against.

The attack underperformed its chances by 3.1 goals and the defence conceded 0.9 fewer than expected. Coverage is 13 of 13 matches; missing matches are excluded, never estimated.

Per-match xG records, verified sample only.

Goals versus expected, 2026/27

13 covered matches

Attack: goals vs expected

Goals scored11

Expected (xG)14.1

Underperformed by 3.1 goals in covered matches

Defence: conceded vs expected

Goals conceded25

Expected against (xGA)25.9

Conceded 0.9 fewer than expected in covered matches

xG difference, last 10 covered matchesabove the line = outcreated opponent

What the numbers mean

Reviewed with every data refresh

Are Derby better or worse than their results?

Covered sample: 11 scored from 14.1 xG, 25 conceded from 25.9 xGA over 13 matches.

Expected goals measure the quality of chances created and faced, so a persistent gap between goals and xG marks finishing runs or goalkeeping variance rather than underlying strength. Coverage is stated because partial samples must never masquerade as a full season.