Derby xG 2026/27

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5 latest covered matches

The Derby xG picture

Updated 17 Sept 2026, 18:31 BST

Across the 7 2026/27 matches with verified per-match xG, Derby scored 6 from 7.5 expected goals and conceded 13 from 14.2 expected against.

The attack underperformed its chances by 1.5 goals and the defence conceded 1.2 fewer than expected. Coverage is 7 of 10 matches; missing matches are excluded, never estimated.

Per-match xG records, verified sample only.

Goals versus expected, 2026/27

7 covered matches

Attack: goals vs expected

Goals scored6

Expected (xG)7.5

Underperformed by 1.5 goals in covered matches

Defence: conceded vs expected

Goals conceded13

Expected against (xGA)14.2

Conceded 1.2 fewer than expected in covered matches

xG difference, last 9 covered matchesabove the line = outcreated opponent

What the numbers mean

Reviewed with every data refresh

Are Derby better or worse than their results?

Covered sample: 6 scored from 7.5 xG, 13 conceded from 14.2 xGA over 7 matches.

Expected goals measure the quality of chances created and faced, so a persistent gap between goals and xG marks finishing runs or goalkeeping variance rather than underlying strength. Coverage is stated because partial samples must never masquerade as a full season.