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Match probabilities, best market prices and a settled record across every MLS fixture we cover.
Accuracy
62.9%
MLS settled picks
Settled
1,479
picks tracked
Upcoming
15
in next 7 days
Soonest
Sat 2 May, 18:00
next kickoff
MLS pushes our model harder than any league in our coverage. The regular season runs from late February into October, the field stretches from Vancouver to Miami, and travel covers timezones rather than counties. Heat in mid-summer, altitude in Salt Lake and Colorado, and short rest cycles around midweek US Open Cup ties all matter, and the model accounts for them explicitly. We write a per-match pick across the full-time result, both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals for every regular season match plus every playoff fixture, and the inputs refresh every three hours so the page reads what we knew at kickoff. The structural home premium in MLS runs higher than the European leagues because cross-country travel cuts more deeply into away xG output than European trips do. Designated player absences also swing lines harder than they would in Europe because squad depth varies dramatically across the league, with the model treating Eastern and Western Conference standings as separate playoff races from August onwards. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
18W · 12L · 60% strike rate
MLS picks lean on five league-specific inputs. First, a five-game form window with home and away splits, plus an additional read for matches involving long cross-country travel. Second, an expected-goals read at both ends. Third, our injury impact score; squad depth varies more dramatically across MLS than in any European league we cover, so a key absentee can swing a line meaningfully. Fourth, a heat and altitude read on summer and Mountain West fixtures, both of which depress away xG output and bias the totals read in the direction of low-scoring outcomes. Fifth, a midweek-cup penalty that reduces form weight for sides coming off US Open Cup ties. The page renders our probability next to the best licensed bookmaker price.
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All predictions and analysis on this page are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Odds displayed are sourced from third-party bookmakers and are subject to change. SportSignals may receive commission from bookmaker links on this page.