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Bundesliga · MW3 Stadion An der Alten Försterei, BerlinRef: Timo Gerach
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Union Berlin 1-3 Schalke 04 result, stats and report

Union Berlin
Lost · xG 2.24
1 – 3
FT 15:15
Won · xG 2.42
Schalke 04
Next: FC Augsburg v Union Berlin · Sat 24 Oct · 1. FC Köln v Schalke 04 · Sat 24 Oct
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

Union BerlinSchalke 04Bundesliga

The provider forecast gives Schalke 04 win the highest 1X2 probability at 41.3%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

Union Berlin
33.4%
Draw
25.3%
S04
41.3%
Both teams to score · Yes
55.3%
Over 2.5 goals
53.7%

Full-time forecast audit: Schalke 04 win was the highest probability; the match result was Schalke 04 win.

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorewon
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultlost
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalswon
Over 3.5 goalslost
Full-time resultwon
Double chancewon
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveswon

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

33%
25%
41%
33.4%Union Berlin
25.3%Draw
41.3%S04

Both Teams to Score

55%
Yes 55.3%No 44.7%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

54%
Yes 53.7%No 46.3%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
33%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
10.9%
0-1
8.7%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
8.0%
2-1
7.5%
0-0
7.0%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates S04 or draw at 50.5%; the most likely half-time state is S04 leading at half-time at 39.1%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 4.6%.

Double Chance

1X
42.5%
12
7.0%
X2
50.5%

Half-Time Result

Union Berlin
26.2%
Draw
34.7%
S04
39.1%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
Union Berlin
Draw
S04
Union Berlin
18.1%
4.5%
3.3%
Draw
9.2%
13.0%
13.1%
S04
2.5%
5.6%
30.8%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
4.6%
No
95.4%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.