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Ligue 1 · MW4 Roazhon Park, RennesRef: Jeremy Stinat
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Rennes 1-0 Marseille result, stats and report

Rennes
Won · xG 1.89
1 – 0
FT 15:15
Lost · xG 1.00
Marseille
Next: Juventus v Rennes · Thu 22 Oct · Sturm Graz v Marseille · Thu 22 Oct
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Who won Rennes vs Marseille?

Rennes 1-0 Marseille, full time in Ligue 1. Played UK time. Our model's pre-match pick was Both teams to score — No, which landed. Before this meeting the sides had met once in the fixtures we hold, and Marseille won it.

How it played out

Rennes won it 1–0

No minute-by-minute record was captured for this match, so the shape of it is not drawn.

Verified final · revision 5 · 15:15Full stats
Match StoryFull breakdown

Rennes 1–0 Marseille

Adrien Thomasson's second-half strike proved the difference as Marseille ground out a 1-0 victory at Rennes, ending a run of back-to-back Ligue 1 defeats with a disciplined, hard-fought away performance.

Key Takeaways
Result

Rennes beat Marseille 1-0 at home.

Goals

A single goal kept the match under the 2.5 line.

Chance quality

The chances backed the result: Rennes 1.89 to Marseille 1.00 on expected goals.

First Goal
A
52'⚽
Adrien Thomasson
MAssist: Mousa Tamari
Game Flow

Expected Goals (xG)

Rennes 1.89 xGMarseille 1.00 xG
Cumulative · approximated from goal events
0'45'90'

SportSignals model forecast

Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip

Rennes to win

43%Matched

Result

Rennes1:0Marseille

Rennes v Marseille

Our model called Rennes to win at 43%. Rennes 1-0 Marseille. Forecast matched the result.
📊 Match recap and data context

Rennes beat Marseille 1-0 at Roazhon Park in Ligue 1, landing our model's 43% pick for a home win. The hosts controlled the match against a Marseille side that has won just once in five games; Rennes' recent form showed three wins in their last five outings. Our AI engine favoured the home side despite Marseille's historical edge in this fixture. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.

Rennes v Marseille · Ligue 1 ·

More from this competition: Ligue 1 predictions · Ligue 1 odds

Player ratings

Who decided it

All 22
  1. Adrien Thomasson★ MOTM1 goal · 90 min7.8
  2. Brice SambaRennes90 min7.8
  3. Jeffrey de LangeMarseille90 min7.8
  4. Valentin RongierRennes90 min7.6
  5. CJ Egan-RileyMarseille90 min7.5

Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

The provider forecast gives Rennes win the highest 1X2 probability at 42.8%. A separately qualified SportSignals Tip has an official settlement record for this fixture.

Rennes
42.8%
Draw
22.8%
Marseille
34.5%
Both teams to score · Yes
58.8%
Over 2.5 goals
60.2%

Full-time forecast audit: Rennes win was the highest probability; the match result was Rennes win.

Forecast result checked ·

Tip record · publication ledgerProof it was published before kickoffImmutable
✦ TIP

SportSignals Tip settlement

Official terminal ledger · each row keeps its exact result
Ligue 1· published 04:25won
Under 2.5 goals

Logged at 2.62 with Betfair Exchange

Betfair Exchange offered 2.62 when we checked at 01:05 on 11 Sept.

Betfair Exchange is a betting exchange. It takes a small commission from winnings.

Publication provenance
  • Immutable Tips ledger · record e2fc2bf8-6ae3-4a6c-a034-ef2e0d70659f · model publication version not recorded

Source: immutable SportSignals Tips publication ledger. Provider predictions and market prices are separate records and never create a Tip or a settlement result.

Match facts · what the record shows

Pre-match facts retained

The historical evidence saved at kick-off, kept separate from what happened in the match.

Head-to-head evidence

Pre-match historical evidence

  • 1-1is the most common scoreline between Rennes and Marseille, landing 5 times across 28 league meetings on record.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 15/28recorded league meetings saw both teams score (53.6%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 18league matches at home unbeaten for Rennes.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Rennes scored first in 7 of their last 10 league matches (70%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Marseille scored first in 5 of their last 10 league matches (50%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Rennes have averaged 2.3 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Marseille have averaged 1.5 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Estéban Lepaul has the highest listed average xGOT for Rennes at 0.65 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Amine Gouiri has the highest listed average xGOT for Marseille at 0.67 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot

Immutable kick-off snapshot · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.

Questions about this result

  • What was the final score in Rennes vs Marseille?
    Rennes beat Marseille 1-0 in the Ligue 1 at Roazhon Park.
  • Who scored the opening goal?
    Adrien Thomasson opened the scoring in the 52nd minute.
  • Who scored in the match?
    Adrien Thomasson (52').
  • How many bookings were there?
    The referee showed 5 yellow cards.
  • Who refereed the match?
    Jeremy Stinat officiated.
  • When and where was the match played?
    Rennes vs Marseille kicked off on Friday, 11 September 2026 UK time at Roazhon Park.
  • How many corners were there in the match?
    8 corners were taken across the 90 minutes.
  • Did the model call it right?
    Yes. The published pick was Both teams to score — No, and it landed.
  • When do they play next?
    Rennes play Juventus on Thursday, 22 October 2026 UK time. Marseille play Sturm Graz on Thursday, 22 October 2026 UK time.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.