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This match had live commentary, stats and in-play prices; no momentum.
QPR 4-1 Derby, full time in the EFL Championship. Played UK time. Our model's pre-match pick was Both teams to score, which landed. Before this meeting the sides had met once in the fixtures we hold, and Derby won it.
QPR put four past Derby County in a commanding Championship win, with goals from Alfie Lloyd, Nicolas Madsen, Harvey Vale and Paul Smyth sealing a statement result. Derby were poor from the first whistle and their numbers told a damning story.
Read the reviewNo minute-by-minute record was captured for this match, so the shape of it is not drawn.
QPR 4–1 Derby
QPR put four past Derby County in a commanding Championship win, with goals from Alfie Lloyd, Nicolas Madsen, Harvey Vale and Paul Smyth sealing a statement result. Derby were poor from the first whistle and their numbers told a damning story.
QPR beat Derby 4-1 at home.
5 goals took the match over the 2.5 line.
Expected Goals (xG)
SportSignals model forecast
Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip
QPR to win
Result
4:1
QPR v Derby
QPR beat Derby 4-1 at Loftus Road in the EFL Championship, with our model's 45 percent pick for a home win landing cleanly. Lloyd opened the scoring in the 18th minute, then Madsen converted a penalty four minutes later; Vale added a third before half-time. The hosts dominated throughout, with Derby unable to mount a sustained challenge despite pulling one back. Our model's call proved sound given QPR's recent form and Derby's struggles on the road. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.
QPR v Derby · EFL Championship ·
More from this competition: EFL Championship predictions · EFL Championship odds
Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip
The provider forecast gives QPR win the highest 1X2 probability at 44.9%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.
Full-time forecast audit: QPR win was the highest probability; the match result was QPR win.
Forecast result checked ·
No selection qualified before kickoff, so there is no paid Tip to settle. The original model prediction and observed prices remain separate audit records.
Final pre-match decision · no Tip to settle
The final verified live-context record and historical evidence saved before kick-off, kept as separate evidence sets.
Captured from live match context at . This is a retained situation record, not a post-match performance claim.
Immutable lifecycle evidence · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.
Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.
After 13 played. Movement is measured against the table at kickoff.
