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Carabao Cup The Den, LondonRef: Craig Pawson
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Millwall 0-1 Newcastle United result, stats and report

Millwall
Lost · xG 0.64
0 – 1
FT
Won · xG 2.02
Newcastle United
Next: Portsmouth v Millwall · Sat 24 Oct · Crystal Palace v Newcastle United · Sun 25 Oct
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

MillwallNewcastle UnitedCarabao Cup

The provider forecast gives Newcastle United win the highest 1X2 probability at 40.1%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

Millwall
36.0%
Draw
23.9%
Newcastle United
40.1%
Both teams to score · Yes
54.9%
Over 2.5 goals
53.5%

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorelost
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultwon
Over 1.5 goalslost
Over 2.5 goalslost
Over 3.5 goalswon
Full-time resultwon
Double chancelost
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveswon

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

36%
24%
40%
36.0%Millwall
23.9%Draw
40.1%Newcastle United

Both Teams to Score

55%
Yes 54.9%No 45.1%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

53%
Yes 53.5%No 46.5%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
31%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
11.2%
0-1
8.8%
1-0
8.5%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.0%
0-0
6.4%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates Millwall or draw at 47.4%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 42.2%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 5.1%.

Double Chance

1X
47.4%
12
6.4%
X2
46.2%

Half-Time Result

Millwall
29.4%
Draw
42.2%
Newcastle United
28.4%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
Millwall
Draw
Newcastle United
Millwall
23.2%
4.8%
2.3%
Draw
13.7%
14.6%
13.8%
Newcastle United
2.5%
4.7%
20.4%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
5.1%
No
94.9%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.