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EFL Championship · MW13 The Den, London

From kick-off: live commentary, stats, momentum and in-play prices from bet365.

Millwall vs Derby prediction, odds and how to watch

Millwall
Millwall
Kickoff
31 Oct
Millwall 45%Draw 26%Derby 29%
Derby
Derby
Kickoff and the final result. Lineups and goals are one switch more.
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Should you back Millwall or Derby?

Millwall vs Derby kicks off UK time in the EFL Championship. The match is at The Den, London. Our model has not published a pick for this match yet. Picks and prices land closer to kick-off. These sides have met once in the fixtures we hold, and Millwall won it.

Match intelligence · not a tip

Millwall has the highest forecast probability · Over 2.5 goals is more likely

Match-result model updated
Match-result probability · model
Millwall45.1%
Draw26.0%
Derby28.9%
BTTS yes55.4%

Updated

Over 2.550.9%

Updated

Head to head · last 6Full H2H →

No recorded meetings between these two sides yet.

Provider forecast · Prediction tab · Methodology

Match facts before kick-off

No approved historical Match Facts are available for this fixture. Nothing is inferred from missing provider coverage.

Match Facts feed warming up

Form & xG · last 6 games

Rolling across all competitions
MillwallMillwall
10.4
xG for
8▼ -2.4
Goals
8.2
xGA
Last 6 matchesunder-performing xG
DerbyDerby
7.0
xG for
4▼ -3.0
Goals
8.2
xGA
Last 6 matchesunder-performing xG
MillwallNewest first

Goalsoutlined xG

Millwall recent goals and expected goals, newest match first
MatchResultGoalsxG
1D21.86
2L01.26
3W11.26
4D22.68
5D21.37
6L12.00
DerbyNewest first

Goalsoutlined xG

Derby recent goals and expected goals, newest match first
MatchResultGoalsxG
1L01.32
2L11.09
3D10.80
4D11.29
5L11.18
6L01.37
Millwall have taken fewer points than their chances were worth: 6 points against 9.8 expected. Derby have taken fewer points than their chances were worth: 2 points against 7.7 expected.Expected points reruns each match from its chances alone.
Millwall generated 10.4 xG across their last 6 matches and scored 8, 2.4 below that chance total. Derby generated 7.0 xG across their last 6 matches and scored 4, 3.0 below that chance total.

Team comparison · recent form

Millwall: 6 matches · Derby: 6
Recent team comparison. Millwall sample 6; Derby sample 6.
MeasureMillwallDerby
Goals / game1.330.67
Conceded / game1.671.67
xG / game1.731.17
xG conceded / game1.371.37
Historical context, not stats from this fixture. xG coverage: 6 and 6 matches.Full team comparison
How to watch

How to watch Millwall v Derby

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Lineups

Probable XIs

Probable · confirmed ~14:00
MillwallDerby
Millwall11 starters
15Crocombe
5Cooper
3Sturge
2McNamara
67Bannan
8Mitchell
16Kelly
24Norre
10Neghli
31Bangura-Williams
29Lovelace
Derby11 starters
1Zetterström
28Sanderson
6Langås
51Thompson
19Szmodics
42Clark
18Ozoh
23Ward
37Eames
25Díaz
9Morris
Out / doubtful
🩹 Tristan Crama injury · 🩹 Josh Coburn injury · 🩹 Ryan Leonard injury
Changes
Most-frequent starters over the last 11 matches. Confirmed teams land about an hour before kickoff, and any change from this XI appears here.

Every linked name opens the player page · Full lineups and injuries →

📊 Match preview and data context

No AI summary available yet for this fixture.

SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.

Millwall v Derby · EFL Championship ·

More from this competition: EFL Championship predictions · EFL Championship odds

Questions about this match

  • When and where is Millwall vs Derby?
    Millwall vs Derby takes place on Saturday 31 October at 15:00 (UK time) in the EFL Championship at The Den, London.
  • What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
    In their last 1 meetings, Millwall won 1, Derby won 0, with 0 draws. Both teams scored in 0 of those 1.
  • How can I watch Millwall vs Derby?
    Check your local official broadcaster or rights-holder for EFL Championship coverage in your region. SportSignals does not stream matches.
  • Are SportSignals predictions for Millwall vs Derby free?
    Yes. The model's predictions, odds comparison, stats and head-to-head for Millwall vs Derby are free to read. 18+. Predictions are informational, not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. begambleaware.org.
Tips record

Tip decision pending

The pre-match publication window is still open. No Tip has been recorded yet, so this is not a no-Tip decision.

Latest possible publication cutoff · kickoff 31 Oct, 15:00 GMT

Other qualifying Tips

Stade Brestois 29 Vs NicePlus TipIpswich Vs Nottingham ForestPlus Tip

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.