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Bundesliga · MW2 Volksparkstadion, HamburgRef: Tobias Reichel
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05 result, stats and report

Hamburger SV
Lost · xG 0.26
0 – 5
FT 09:55
Won · xG 2.71
FSV Mainz 05
Next: Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart · Sat 17 Oct · Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 · Sat 17 Oct
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

The provider forecast gives FSV Mainz 05 win the highest 1X2 probability at 45.1%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

Hamburger SV
31.8%
Draw
23.1%
FSV Mainz 05
45.1%
Both teams to score · Yes
61.1%
Over 2.5 goals
61.9%

Full-time forecast audit: FSV Mainz 05 win was the highest probability; the match result was FSV Mainz 05 win.

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorelost
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultlost
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalswon
Over 3.5 goalslost
Full-time resultwon
Double chancewon
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveslost

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

32%
23%
45%
31.8%Hamburger SV
23.1%Draw
45.1%FSV Mainz 05

Both Teams to Score

61%
Yes 61.1%No 38.9%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

62%
Yes 61.9%No 38.1%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
10.1%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.1%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
6.5%
0-2
6.2%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates FSV Mainz 05 or draw at 55.1%; the most likely half-time state is FSV Mainz 05 leading at half-time at 41.4%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 5.5%.

Double Chance

1X
40.3%
12
4.6%
X2
55.1%

Half-Time Result

Hamburger SV
24.4%
Draw
34.2%
FSV Mainz 05
41.4%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
Hamburger SV
Draw
FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
17.2%
4.6%
3.5%
Draw
9.4%
12.5%
12.7%
FSV Mainz 05
2.1%
5.9%
32.1%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
5.5%
No
94.5%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.