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EFL Championship · MW3 Pride Park Stadium, DerbyRef: David Webb
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Derby 0-3 Swansea result, stats and report

Derby
Lost · xG 0.82
0 – 3
FT
Won · xG 2.10
Swansea
Next: QPR v Derby · Wed 14 Oct · Millwall v Swansea · Tue 13 Oct
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

DerbySwanseaEFL Championship

The provider forecast gives Derby win the highest 1X2 probability at 40.8%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

Derby
40.8%
Draw
26.5%
Swansea
32.6%
Both teams to score · Yes
53.5%
Over 2.5 goals
48.4%

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorelost
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultwon
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalswon
Over 3.5 goalswon
Full-time resultlost
Double chancelost
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveswon

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

41%
27%
33%
40.8%Derby
26.5%Draw
32.6%Swansea

Both Teams to Score

53%
Yes 53.5%No 46.5%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

48%
Yes 48.4%No 51.6%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
26%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
12.7%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
8.8%
1-2
8.0%
0-0
7.4%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates Derby or draw at 51.6%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 45.8%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 4.6%.

Double Chance

1X
51.6%
12
7.4%
X2
41.0%

Half-Time Result

Derby
30.8%
Draw
45.8%
Swansea
23.4%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
Derby
Draw
Swansea
Derby
22.7%
5.5%
2.6%
Draw
15.0%
17.6%
12.3%
Swansea
2.6%
5.4%
16.4%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
4.6%
No
95.4%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.