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By SportSignals Match Desk · Football analysis desk ·
Millwall dominated large spells and created the better chances, but a 90th-minute goal from substitute Ronald gave Swansea a 1-0 win that felt cruel on the numbers.
Millwall dominated large spells and created the better chances, but a 90th-minute goal from substitute Ronald gave Swansea a 1-0 win that felt cruel on the numbers.
EFL ChampionshipTue 13 Oct, 19:45
Key Takeaways
Result
Swansea won 1-0 away at Millwall.
Goals
A single goal kept the match under the 2.5 line.
Chance quality
The chances backed the result: Millwall 1.26 to Swansea 2.02 on expected goals.
First Goal
R
90'⚽
Ronald
JAssist: Joseph Opoku
Game Flow
Expected Goals (xG)
Millwall 1.26 xGSwansea 2.02 xG
Cumulative · approximated from goal events
SportSignals model forecast
Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip
Millwall to win
40%Missed
Result
0:1
Millwall v Swansea
Our model leaned Millwall to win at 40%. Millwall 0-1 Swansea. Forecast did not match the result.
📊 Match recap and data context
Swansea won 1-0 at The Den, with Ronald scoring in the 90th minute. Our model favored Millwall at 40 percent probability, and the pick missed. Millwall had won two of their last five matches while Swansea arrived in strong form with four wins in five. The late goal proved decisive in a match where both sides had shown a 60 percent both-teams-to-score rate across recent fixtures. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.
The provider forecast gives Millwall win the highest 1X2 probability at 40.1%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.
Millwall
40.1%
Draw
25.7%
Swansea
34.2%
Both teams to score · Yes
57.2%
Over 2.5 goals
52.6%
Full-time forecast audit: Millwall win was the highest probability; the match result was Swansea win.
Forecast result checked ·
Tips record
No Tip was published for this match
No selection qualified before kickoff, so there is no paid Tip to settle. The original model prediction and observed prices remain separate audit records.
Final pre-match decision · no Tip to settle
Current alternative Tips will be checked as this section comes into view
Match facts · what the record shows
10 facts from this result
The final verified live-context record and historical evidence saved before kick-off, kept as separate evidence sets.