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La Liga · Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 15:15 KO Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction, odds and how to watch

Kickoff
20 Sept
Atletico Madrid 31%Draw 24%Real Madrid 45%
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Provider prediction · not a Tip

Match intelligence

Atletico MadridReal MadridLa Liga

The provider forecast gives Real Madrid win the highest 1X2 probability at 44.6%. The Tip publication window remains open; no Tip is recorded yet, so no no-Tip decision is inferred.

Atletico Madrid
31.2%
Draw
24.1%
Real Madrid
44.6%
Both teams to score · Yes
61.5%
Over 2.5 goals
60.7%

Provider forecast checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus Edge
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Edge separately compares a probability with an eligible price.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

31%
24%
45%
31.2%Atletico Madrid
24.1%Draw
44.6%Real Madrid

Both Teams to Score

62%
Yes 61.5%No 38.5%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

61%
Yes 60.7%No 39.3%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
38%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.4%
0-1
7.3%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
6.2%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates Real Madrid or draw at 48.7%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 42.5%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 5.4%.

Double Chance

1X
46.5%
12
4.8%
X2
48.7%

Half-Time Result

Atletico Madrid
26.1%
Draw
42.5%
Real Madrid
31.4%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
Atletico Madrid
Draw
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
18.2%
4.7%
3.9%
Draw
11.7%
15.8%
13.9%
Real Madrid
2.7%
5.3%
23.8%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
5.4%
No
94.6%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.