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La Liga · MW7 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, MadridRef: Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid result, stats and report

Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Won · xG 2.39
2 – 1
FT 03:15
Real Madrid
Lost · xG 0.30
Real Madrid
Match review
Next: Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruña · Sat 24 Oct · Barcelona v Real Madrid · Sun 25 Oct
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Who won Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid, full time in La Liga. Played UK time. Our model's pre-match pick was Both teams to score, which landed. Before this meeting the sides had met 2 times in the fixtures we hold, with Atletico Madrid winning 1, Real Madrid winning 1 and 0 drawn.

How it played out

Atletico Madrid won it 2–1

Atletico MadridReal Madrid

No minute-by-minute record was captured for this match, so the shape of it is not drawn.

Verified final · revision 4 · 03:15Full stats
Match StoryFull breakdown

Atletico Madrid 2–1 Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid 2-1 in a feisty Madrid derby at the Wanda Metropolitano, with Jonathan David's goal and a penalty from Alejandro Grimaldo doing the damage before Antonio Rudiger gave Los Blancos hope in stoppage time.

La LigaSun 20 Sept, 15:15
Key Takeaways
Result

Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid 2-1 at home.

Goals

3 goals took the match over the 2.5 line.

Chance quality

The chances backed the result: Atletico Madrid 2.39 to Real Madrid 0.30 on expected goals.

First Goal
J
59'⚽
Jonathan David
GAssist: Giuliano Simeone
Game Flow

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico Madrid 2.39 xGReal Madrid 0.30 xG
Cumulative · approximated from goal events
0'45'90'

SportSignals model forecast

Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip

Atletico Madrid to win

38%Matched

Result

Atletico Madrid2:1Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid

Our model called Atletico Madrid to win at 38%. Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid. Forecast matched the result.
📊 Match recap and data context

Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid 2-1 at the Metropolitano in a derby that went our model's way. Our pick of an Atletico win at 38 percent probability landed. Grimaldo converted a penalty on 53 minutes, then David extended the lead to 2-0 by the 59th minute. Rüdiger pulled one back for Madrid with nine minutes remaining, but the hosts held on. Both sides continued a pattern of conceding in recent fixtures. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid · La Liga ·

More from this competition: La Liga predictions · La Liga odds

Player ratings

Who decided it

All 22
  1. Jude BellinghamReal Madrid★ MOTM82 min7.6
  2. Giuliano SimeoneAtletico Madrid1 assist · 90 min7.4
  3. Jonathan David1 goal · 62 min7.3
  4. KokeAtletico Madrid44 min7.3
  5. Dávid HanckoAtletico Madrid90 min7.2

Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

Atletico MadridReal MadridLa Liga

The provider forecast gives Atletico Madrid win the highest 1X2 probability at 38.0%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

Atletico Madrid
38.0%
Draw
24.1%
Real Madrid
37.9%
Both teams to score · Yes
65.8%
Over 2.5 goals
65.2%

Full-time forecast audit: Atletico Madrid win was the highest probability; the match result was Atletico Madrid win.

Forecast result checked ·

Tips record

No Tip was published for this match

No selection qualified before kickoff, so there is no paid Tip to settle. The original model prediction and observed prices remain separate audit records.

Final pre-match decision · no Tip to settle

Current alternative Tips will be checked as this section comes into view
Match facts · what the record shows

Pre-match facts retained

The historical evidence saved at kick-off, kept separate from what happened in the match.

Head-to-head evidence

Pre-match historical evidence

  • 1-1is the most common scoreline between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid, landing 8 times across 26 league meetings on record.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 15/26recorded league meetings saw both teams score (57.7%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 44league matches at home unbeaten for Atletico Madrid.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 41league matches away from home unbeaten for Real Madrid.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Atletico Madrid scored first in 7 of their last 10 league matches (70%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Real Madrid scored first in 8 of their last 10 league matches (80%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Atletico Madrid have averaged 1.8 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Real Madrid have averaged 2.4 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Jonathan David has the highest listed average xGOT for Atletico Madrid at 0.88 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Kylian Mbappé has the highest listed average xGOT for Real Madrid at 0.86 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot

Immutable kick-off snapshot · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.

Questions about this result

  • What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
    Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid 2-1 in the La Liga at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
  • Who scored the opening goal?
    Alejandro Grimaldo opened the scoring in the 53rd minute.
  • Who scored in the match?
    Alejandro Grimaldo (53'), Jonathan David (59'), Antonio Rüdiger (89').
  • How many bookings were there?
    The referee showed 5 yellow cards and 1 red card.
  • Who refereed the match?
    Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias officiated.
  • When and where was the match played?
    Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid kicked off on Sunday, 20 September 2026 UK time at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
  • How many corners were there in the match?
    4 corners were taken across the 90 minutes.
  • Did the model call it right?
    Yes. The published pick was Both teams to score, and it landed.
  • When do they play next?
    Atletico Madrid play Deportivo La Coruña on Saturday, 24 October 2026 UK time. Real Madrid play Barcelona on Sunday, 25 October 2026 UK time.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.