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Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid, full time in La Liga. Played UK time. Our model's pre-match pick was Both teams to score, which landed. Before this meeting the sides had met 2 times in the fixtures we hold, with Atletico Madrid winning 1, Real Madrid winning 1 and 0 drawn.
By SportSignals Match Desk · Football analysis desk ·
Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid 2-1 in a feisty Madrid derby at the Wanda Metropolitano, with Jonathan David's goal and a penalty from Alejandro Grimaldo doing the damage before Antonio Rudiger gave Los Blancos hope in stoppage time.
Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid 2-1 in a feisty Madrid derby at the Wanda Metropolitano, with Jonathan David's goal and a penalty from Alejandro Grimaldo doing the damage before Antonio Rudiger gave Los Blancos hope in stoppage time.
La LigaSun 20 Sept, 15:15
Key Takeaways
Result
Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid 2-1 at home.
Goals
3 goals took the match over the 2.5 line.
Chance quality
The chances backed the result: Atletico Madrid 2.39 to Real Madrid 0.30 on expected goals.
First Goal
J
59'⚽
Jonathan David
GAssist: Giuliano Simeone
Game Flow
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Madrid 2.39 xGReal Madrid 0.30 xG
Cumulative · approximated from goal events
SportSignals model forecast
Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip
Atletico Madrid to win
38%Matched
Result
2:1
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid
Our model called Atletico Madrid to win at 38%. Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid. Forecast matched the result.
📊 Match recap and data context
Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid 2-1 at the Metropolitano in a derby that went our model's way. Our pick of an Atletico win at 38 percent probability landed. Grimaldo converted a penalty on 53 minutes, then David extended the lead to 2-0 by the 59th minute. Rüdiger pulled one back for Madrid with nine minutes remaining, but the hosts held on. Both sides continued a pattern of conceding in recent fixtures. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.
The provider forecast gives Atletico Madrid win the highest 1X2 probability at 38.0%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.
Atletico Madrid
38.0%
Draw
24.1%
Real Madrid
37.9%
Both teams to score · Yes
65.8%
Over 2.5 goals
65.2%
Full-time forecast audit: Atletico Madrid win was the highest probability; the match result was Atletico Madrid win.
Forecast result checked ·
Tips record
No Tip was published for this match
No selection qualified before kickoff, so there is no paid Tip to settle. The original model prediction and observed prices remain separate audit records.
Final pre-match decision · no Tip to settle
Current alternative Tips will be checked as this section comes into view
Match facts · what the record shows
Pre-match facts retained
The historical evidence saved at kick-off, kept separate from what happened in the match.
1-1is the most common scoreline between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid, landing 8 times across 26 league meetings on record.Immutable kick-off snapshot
15/26recorded league meetings saw both teams score (57.7%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
44league matches at home unbeaten for Atletico Madrid.Immutable kick-off snapshot
41league matches away from home unbeaten for Real Madrid.Immutable kick-off snapshot
Atletico Madrid scored first in 7 of their last 10 league matches (70%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
Real Madrid scored first in 8 of their last 10 league matches (80%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
Atletico Madrid have averaged 1.8 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
Real Madrid have averaged 2.4 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
Jonathan David has the highest listed average xGOT for Atletico Madrid at 0.88 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot
Kylian Mbappé has the highest listed average xGOT for Real Madrid at 0.86 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot
Immutable kick-off snapshot · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.
Questions about this result
▸What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?