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Premier League · MW4 Villa Park, BirminghamRef: Andy Madley
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest result, stats and report

Aston Villa
Lost · xG 1.06
1 – 2
FT 08:05
Won · xG 2.38
Nottingham Forest
Next: Aston Villa v Manchester City · Sat 24 Oct · Ipswich v Nottingham Forest · Fri 23 Oct
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

Aston VillaNottingham ForestPremier League

The provider forecast gives Aston Villa win the highest 1X2 probability at 41.8%. A separately qualified SportSignals Tip has an official settlement record for this fixture.

Aston Villa
41.8%
Draw
24.9%
Nottingham Forest
33.2%
Both teams to score · Yes
61.0%
Over 2.5 goals
59.2%

Full-time forecast audit: Aston Villa win was the highest probability; the match result was Nottingham Forest win.

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorewon
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultwon
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalswon
Over 3.5 goalswon
Full-time resultlost
Double chancelost
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveswon

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

42%
25%
33%
41.8%Aston Villa
24.9%Draw
33.2%Nottingham Forest

Both Teams to Score

61%
Yes 61.0%No 39.0%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

59%
Yes 59.2%No 40.8%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
37%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
10.6%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
7.7%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
6.9%
0-1
6.6%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates Aston Villa or draw at 55.1%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 40.4%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 8.3%.

Double Chance

1X
55.1%
12
5.3%
X2
39.5%

Half-Time Result

Aston Villa
34.7%
Draw
40.4%
Nottingham Forest
24.9%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
Aston Villa
Draw
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
26.9%
5.7%
2.8%
Draw
14.5%
14.6%
11.3%
Nottingham Forest
3.3%
5.7%
15.2%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
8.3%
No
91.8%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.