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Premier League · MW2 Villa Park, BirminghamRef: Jarred Gillett
Full time

This match had live commentary, stats and in-play prices; no momentum.

Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal result, stats and report

Aston Villa
Lost · xG 0.15
0 – 1
FT
Won · xG 1.22
Arsenal
Next: Aston Villa v Sunderland · Sat 21 Nov · Newcastle United v Arsenal · Sat 21 Nov
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

Aston VillaArsenalPremier League

The provider forecast gives Arsenal win the highest 1X2 probability at 48.7%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

Aston Villa
26.6%
Draw
24.6%
Arsenal
48.7%
Both teams to score · Yes
59.7%
Over 2.5 goals
59.0%

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorelost
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultwon
Over 1.5 goalslost
Over 2.5 goalslost
Over 3.5 goalswon
Full-time resultwon
Double chancewon
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveswon

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

27%
25%
49%
26.6%Aston Villa
24.6%Draw
48.7%Arsenal

Both Teams to Score

60%
Yes 59.7%No 40.3%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

59%
Yes 59.0%No 41.0%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
38%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
10.7%
1-2
8.9%
0-1
8.1%
0-2
7.2%
2-2
6.5%
2-1
6.5%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates Arsenal or draw at 48.7%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 39.3%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 4.0%.

Double Chance

1X
45.9%
12
5.5%
X2
48.7%

Half-Time Result

Aston Villa
26.6%
Draw
39.3%
Arsenal
34.0%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
Aston Villa
Draw
Arsenal
Aston Villa
17.7%
5.5%
4.1%
Draw
10.2%
15.6%
13.7%
Arsenal
1.9%
5.9%
25.4%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
4.0%
No
96.0%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.