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La Liga · MW3 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-GasteizRef: Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Deportivo Alaves 1-0 Villarreal result, stats and report

Deportivo Alaves
Won · xG 0.52
1 – 0
FT
Lost · xG 0.93
Villarreal
Next: Deportivo Alaves v Atletico Madrid · Sat 10 Oct · Real Madrid v Villarreal · Sat 10 Oct
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

Deportivo AlavesVillarrealLa Liga

The provider forecast gives Villarreal win the highest 1X2 probability at 40.4%. A separately qualified SportSignals Tip has an official settlement record for this fixture.

Deportivo Alaves
32.4%
Draw
27.2%
Villarreal
40.4%
Both teams to score · Yes
54.0%
Over 2.5 goals
47.9%

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorelost
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultwon
Over 1.5 goalslost
Over 2.5 goalswon
Over 3.5 goalswon
Full-time resultlost
Double chancelost
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveswon

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

32%
27%
40%
32.4%Deportivo Alaves
27.2%Draw
40.4%Villarreal

Both Teams to Score

54%
Yes 54.0%No 46.0%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

48%
Yes 47.9%No 52.1%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
26%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
12.9%
0-1
10.1%
1-0
9.1%
1-2
8.7%
0-0
7.7%
2-1
7.7%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates Villarreal or draw at 47.5%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 48.0%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 3.2%.

Double Chance

1X
44.8%
12
7.7%
X2
47.5%

Half-Time Result

Deportivo Alaves
26.1%
Draw
48.0%
Villarreal
25.9%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
Deportivo Alaves
Draw
Villarreal
Deportivo Alaves
18.1%
5.8%
2.7%
Draw
14.5%
18.1%
15.4%
Villarreal
3.0%
5.3%
17.0%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
3.2%
No
96.8%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.