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Eredivisie · MW7 Johan Cruijff Arena, AmsterdamRef: Jannick van der Laan
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Ajax 2-2 Excelsior result, stats and report

Ajax
Ajax
Drew · xG 3.32
2 – 2
FT 08:45
Excelsior
Drew · xG 0.58
Excelsior
Match review
Next: Ajax v Atalanta · Thu 22 Oct · Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior · Sun 25 Oct
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Who won Ajax vs Excelsior?

Ajax 2-2 Excelsior, full time in the Eredivisie. Played UK time. Our model's pre-match pick was Both teams to score, which landed.

How it played out

Level at 2–2 when it finished

AjaxExcelsior

No minute-by-minute record was captured for this match, so the shape of it is not drawn.

Verified final · revision 4 · 08:45Full stats
Match StoryFull breakdown

Ajax 2–2 Excelsior

Ajax dominated every statistical category but could not hold on, with Excelsior scoring twice from minimal chances to earn a 2-2 draw at the Johan Cruyff Arena. Connor Maguire gives his verdict on a result that has no excuse.

EredivisieSat 19 Sept, 19:00
Key Takeaways
Result

Ajax and Excelsior drew 2-2.

Goals

4 goals took the match over the 2.5 line.

First Goal
J
32'⚽
Julian Brandt
KAssist: Kasper Dolberg
Game Flow

Expected Goals (xG)

Ajax 3.32 xGExcelsior 0.58 xG
Cumulative · approximated from goal events
0'45'90'

SportSignals model forecast

Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip

Ajax to win

60%Missed

Result

Ajax2:2Excelsior

Ajax v Excelsior

Our model leaned Ajax to win at 60%. Ajax 2-2 Excelsior. Forecast did not match the result.
📊 Match recap and data context

Ajax drew 2-2 with Excelsior at the Johan Cruijff Arena in a match that saw both sides find the net. Our model favored an Ajax win at 60 percent probability, a pick that missed. Julian Brandt gave Ajax the lead in the 32nd minute, but Excelsior equalized through Lennard Hartjes in first-half stoppage time and took the lead via Aymen Sliti in the 62nd. The draw extended Ajax's recent form of both teams scoring in every match. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.

Ajax v Excelsior · Eredivisie ·

More from this competition: Eredivisie predictions · Eredivisie odds

Player ratings

Who decided it

All 22
  1. Oscar GloukhAjax★ MOTM1 assist · 90 min9.1
  2. Julian Brandt1 goal · 90 min8.1
  3. Anton GaaeiAjax90 min7.9
  4. Tolu Arokodare1 goal · 28 min7.7
  5. Stijn van GasselExcelsior90 min7.6

Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

AjaxExcelsiorEredivisie

The provider forecast gives Ajax win the highest 1X2 probability at 60.2%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

Ajax
60.2%
Draw
20.9%
Excelsior
18.9%
Both teams to score · Yes
61.0%
Over 2.5 goals
64.0%

Full-time forecast audit: Ajax win was the highest probability; the match result was draw.

Forecast result checked ·

Tips record

No Tip was published for this match

No selection qualified before kickoff, so there is no paid Tip to settle. The original model prediction and observed prices remain separate audit records.

Final pre-match decision · no Tip to settle

Current alternative Tips will be checked as this section comes into view
Match facts · what the record shows

Pre-match facts retained

The historical evidence saved at kick-off, kept separate from what happened in the match.

Head-to-head evidence

Pre-match historical evidence

  • 2-2is the most common scoreline between Ajax and Excelsior, landing 3 times across 16 league meetings on record.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 11/16recorded league meetings saw both teams score (68.8%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 45league matches at home unbeaten for Ajax.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 12league matches away from home unbeaten for Excelsior.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Ajax scored first in 6 of their last 10 league matches (60%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Excelsior scored first in 5 of their last 10 league matches (50%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Ajax have averaged 2.4 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Excelsior have averaged 2.5 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Tolu Arokodare has the highest listed average xGOT for Ajax at 0.55 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • David Garden has the highest listed average xGOT for Excelsior at 0.68 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot

Immutable kick-off snapshot · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.

Questions about this result

  • What was the final score in Ajax vs Excelsior?
    Ajax and Excelsior drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie at Johan Cruijff Arena.
  • Who scored the opening goal?
    Julian Brandt opened the scoring in the 32nd minute.
  • Who scored in the match?
    Julian Brandt (32'), Lennard Hartjes (46'), Aymen Sliti (62'), Tolu Arokodare (64').
  • How many bookings were there?
    The referee showed 3 yellow cards.
  • Who refereed the match?
    Jannick van der Laan officiated.
  • When and where was the match played?
    Ajax vs Excelsior kicked off on Saturday, 19 September 2026 UK time at Johan Cruijff Arena.
  • How many corners were there in the match?
    9 corners were taken across the 90 minutes.
  • Did the model call it right?
    Yes. The published pick was Both teams to score, and it landed.
  • When do they play next?
    Ajax play Atalanta on Thursday, 22 October 2026 UK time. Excelsior play Fortuna Sittard on Sunday, 25 October 2026 UK time.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.