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Eredivisie · Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 19:00 KO Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

Ajax vs Excelsior prediction, odds and how to watch

Kickoff
19 Sept
Ajax 64%Draw 20%Excelsior 16%
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Provider prediction · not a Tip

Match intelligence

AjaxExcelsiorEredivisie

The provider forecast gives Ajax win the highest 1X2 probability at 64.0%. The Tip publication window remains open; no Tip is recorded yet, so no no-Tip decision is inferred.

Ajax
64.0%
Draw
19.9%
Excelsior
16.1%
Both teams to score · Yes
57.8%
Over 2.5 goals
62.9%

Provider forecast checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus Edge
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Edge separately compares a probability with an eligible price.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

64%
20%
16%
64.0%Ajax
19.9%Draw
16.1%Excelsior

Both Teams to Score

58%
Yes 57.8%No 42.2%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

63%
Yes 62.9%No 37.1%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
41%

Most Likely Correct Scores

2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.3%
1-0
9.0%
1-1
8.9%
3-1
7.1%
3-0
6.7%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates Ajax or draw at 65.2%; the most likely half-time state is Ajax leading at half-time at 48.9%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 18.3%.

Double Chance

1X
65.2%
12
4.3%
X2
30.5%

Half-Time Result

Ajax
48.9%
Draw
33.5%
Excelsior
17.6%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
Ajax
Draw
Excelsior
Ajax
41.1%
5.2%
2.2%
Draw
17.2%
11.4%
5.7%
Excelsior
3.6%
3.9%
9.6%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
18.3%
No
81.7%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.