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Lillestrøm's expected goals analysis for the 2026 season shows an attack that underperformed relative to chances created. Across 13 covered matches, the team generated 17 expected goals but converted only 13, representing a -2 goal differential against model predictions.
Defensively, Lillestrøm conceded 20.1 expected goals over the same period, yet allowed 22 actual goals. This +1.9 defensive delta suggests marginally worse finishing efficiency from opponents than underlying shot quality would indicate.
Covered sample: 15 scored from 17.0 xG, 22 conceded from 20.1 xGA over 13 matches.
Expected goals measure the quality of chances created and faced, so a persistent gap between goals and xG marks finishing runs or goalkeeping variance rather than underlying strength. Coverage is stated because partial samples must never masquerade as a full season.
A relative strength index across the covered club cohort, not a percentage or a price.
Lillestrøm SK · X
Football on TNT Sports · X
Vålerenga Fotball Elite · X
| # | Team | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Molde | 20 | 36 |
| 4 | Tromsø | 20 | 35 |
| 5 | Lillestrøm | 20 | 32 |
| 6 | Rosenborg | 20 | 30 |
| 7 | Fredrikstad | 20 | 27 |
Live 2026 table.