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Across the 12 2026/27 matches with verified per-match xG, Celtic scored 27 from 29.7 expected goals and conceded 10 from 13.3 expected against.
The attack underperformed its chances by 2.7 goals and the defence conceded 3.3 fewer than expected. Coverage is 12 of 12 matches; missing matches are excluded, never estimated.
Covered sample: 27 scored from 29.7 xG, 10 conceded from 13.3 xGA over 12 matches.
Expected goals measure the quality of chances created and faced, so a persistent gap between goals and xG marks finishing runs or goalkeeping variance rather than underlying strength. Coverage is stated because partial samples must never masquerade as a full season.
A relative strength index across the covered club cohort, not a percentage or a price.
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