Swansea Host Blackburn With Momentum on Their Side, But Goals at Both Ends Expected
SportSignals Match Desk · Football analysis desk ·
Saturday 31 October. The Swansea.com Stadium. Two sides who have been winning football matches, and two sides who have been conceding them as well. This is not a game for the faint-hearted, and that suits me just fine.
Swansea's Form: Solid, But Not Bulletproof
Four wins from their last five Championship matches. That is a decent return and you cannot argue with it. Swansea beat Burnley 3-1, saw off Lincoln City and Norwich, and ground out a 1-0 result against Millwall. The one blemish was a 0-1 home defeat to West Ham United, and that is the result that tells you something. When the level goes up, Swansea were found wanting.
The thing is, clean sheets are a problem. Just one in those five matches. A backline that is conceding in sixty percent of games is not a backline built on solid foundations. They have a major injury absence that has been running since August, and a moderate one since mid-September. That matters. Defensive basics require bodies, and right now Swansea are short.
Blackburn's Form: Free-Scoring, Free-Conceding
Blackburn have won three of their last five Championship matches. They drew 2-2 with Portsmouth and lost 2-3 to West Brom. Ten goals scored in five matches. Seven conceded. That is not a team you trust to keep it tight. That is a team you watch because something is always happening.
Both teams have scored in eighty percent of Blackburn's recent matches. Their clean sheet record over the sample is identical to Swansea's: one in five. Blackburn also carry long-term injury concerns, with two players sidelined, one of whom is not expected back until mid-November.
Listen, a team that beats Millwall 3-1 and Cardiff 2-1 has something about them. But a team that then ships three goals to West Brom has a problem at the back. End of.
The Tactical Reality
Swansea have home advantage, and that counts for something in the Championship. Their form string reads LWWWW. Four on the spin after that early stumble. There is confidence in this group right now and confidence is currency in this division.
Blackburn's form string reads LWWDW. Three wins in their last four. They arrive with belief as well. This is not a side that will sit in and soak up pressure. They come here to play, and based on what I have seen from their recent matches, they will get forward at every opportunity.
The thing is, that might play right into a game that opens up. Both defences have been there to be got at. Both attacks have been finding the net. The conditions are there for goals, and I am not going to pretend otherwise.
The Verdict
Swansea are the home side, they are in form, and they have the crowd behind them. That makes them the side to back here. But a clean sheet? No. Not with this Blackburn attack, not with Swansea's injury situation in defence, and not with eighty percent of Blackburn's recent matches producing goals at both ends.
Back Swansea to win. Accept that both sides will find the net. That is what the evidence says, and I trust my eyes over anything else.