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Liga Portugal · MW6Ref: David Rafael Oliveira Silva
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Sporting Braga 1-0 Estoril result, stats and report

Sporting Braga
Won · xG 2.09
1 – 0
FT 14:25
Lost · xG 0.74
Estoril
Next: Sporting Braga v Famalicão · Sun 1 Nov · Porto v Estoril · Sat 31 Oct
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Who won Sporting Braga vs Estoril?

Sporting Braga 1-0 Estoril, full time in Liga Portugal. Played UK time. Our model's pre-match pick was Both teams to score — No, which landed. Before this meeting the sides had met once in the fixtures we hold, and it was drawn.

Match Review · published 14 Sept 2026, 22:50 BST

Jonas Wind Seals It Late: Sporting Braga 1-0 Estoril

By SportSignals Match Desk · Football analysis desk ·

Jonas Wind came off the bench to score with seven minutes left and hand Sporting Braga a hard-fought 1-0 win over a dogged but disciplined Estoril side in Liga Portugal.

Read the review
How it played out

SBR won it 1–0

No minute-by-minute record was captured for this match, so the shape of it is not drawn.

Verified final · revision 4 · 14:25Full stats
Match StoryFull breakdown

Sporting Braga 1–0 Estoril

Jonas Wind came off the bench to score with seven minutes left and hand Sporting Braga a hard-fought 1-0 win over a dogged but disciplined Estoril side in Liga Portugal.

Key Takeaways
Result

Sporting Braga beat Estoril 1-0 at home.

Goals

A single goal kept the match under the 2.5 line.

Chance quality

The chances backed the result: Sporting Braga 2.09 to Estoril 0.74 on expected goals.

First Goal
J
83'⚽
Jonas Wind
GAssist: Gorby
Game Flow

Expected Goals (xG)

Sporting Braga 2.09 xGEstoril 0.74 xG
Cumulative · approximated from goal events
0'45'90'

SportSignals model forecast

Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip

Sporting Braga to win

63%Matched

Result

Sporting Braga1:0Estoril

SBR v ETR

Our model called Sporting Braga to win at 63%. Sporting Braga 1-0 Estoril. Forecast matched the result.
📊 Match recap and data context

Sporting Braga defeated Estoril 1-0 in Liga Portugal, with Jonas Wind scoring in the 83rd minute to settle the match. Our model backed a Braga win at 63% probability, and the pick landed. Braga's recent form showed three wins in five games, while Estoril arrived winless across their last five outings. The visitors managed to keep a clean sheet despite both sides showing a 60% tendency toward both teams scoring in recent fixtures. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.

Sporting Braga v Estoril · Liga Portugal ·

More from this competition: Liga Portugal predictions · Liga Portugal odds

Player ratings

Who decided it

All 22
  1. Gustaf Lagerbielke★ MOTM81 min8.1
  2. Jovan Milosevic90 min7.6
  3. Jonas Wind1 goal · 9 min7.3
  4. Adrian Bajrami44 min7.1
  5. Adrian Leon Barisic58 min6.9

Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

The provider forecast gives Sporting Braga win the highest 1X2 probability at 63.0%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

SBR
63.0%
Draw
22.7%
ETR
14.4%
Both teams to score · Yes
44.2%
Over 2.5 goals
47.5%

Full-time forecast audit: Sporting Braga win was the highest probability; the match result was Sporting Braga win.

Forecast result checked ·

Tips record

No Tip was published for this match

No selection qualified before kickoff, so there is no paid Tip to settle. The original model prediction and observed prices remain separate audit records.

Final pre-match decision · no Tip to settle

Current alternative Tips will be checked as this section comes into view
Match facts · what the record shows

Pre-match facts retained

The historical evidence saved at kick-off, kept separate from what happened in the match.

Head-to-head evidence

Pre-match historical evidence

  • 0-2is the most common scoreline between Sporting Braga and Estoril, landing 3 times across 20 league meetings on record.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 9/20recorded league meetings saw both teams score (45%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 40league matches at home unbeaten for Sporting Braga.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Sporting Braga scored first in 7 of their last 10 league matches (70%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Estoril scored first in 2 of their last 10 league matches (20%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Sporting Braga have averaged 1.5 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Estoril have averaged 0.5 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Fran Navarro has the highest listed average xGOT for Sporting Braga at 0.56 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Tiago Parreira Parente has the highest listed average xGOT for Estoril at 0.80 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot

Immutable kick-off snapshot · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.

Questions about this result

  • What was the final score in Sporting Braga vs Estoril?
    SBR beat ETR 1-0 in the Liga Portugal.
  • Who scored the opening goal?
    Jonas Wind opened the scoring in the 83rd minute.
  • Who scored in the match?
    Jonas Wind (83').
  • How many bookings were there?
    The referee showed 3 yellow cards and 1 red card.
  • Who refereed the match?
    David Rafael Oliveira Silva officiated.
  • When and where was the match played?
    SBR vs ETR kicked off on Monday, 14 September 2026 UK time.
  • How many corners were there in the match?
    6 corners were taken across the 90 minutes.
  • Did the model call it right?
    Yes. The published pick was Both teams to score — No, and it landed.
  • When do they play next?
    SBR play Sporting Braga on Sunday, 1 November 2026 UK time. ETR play Porto on Saturday, 31 October 2026 UK time.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.