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Bundesliga · MW4Ref: Daniel Schlager
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Paderborn 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim result, stats and report

Paderborn
Paderborn
Won · xG 1.04
3 – 1
FT 07:15
1899 Hoffenheim
Lost · xG 1.76
1899 Hoffenheim
Match review
Next: Paderborn v Hamburger SV · Sat 24 Oct · 1899 Hoffenheim v Lyon · Thu 22 Oct
Skip match sections

Who won Paderborn vs 1899 Hoffenheim?

Paderborn 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim, full time in the Bundesliga. Played UK time. Our model's pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals, which landed.

How it played out

PAD won it 3–1

PAD1899 Hoffenheim

No minute-by-minute record was captured for this match, so the shape of it is not drawn.

Verified final · revision 3 · 07:15Full stats
Match StoryFull breakdown

Paderborn 3–1 1899 Hoffenheim

Paderborn ended a three-match winless run in the most convincing fashion possible, outfighting and outscoring a Hoffenheim side that dominated possession but could not turn it into goals.

BundesligaSun 20 Sept, 18:30
Key Takeaways
Result

Paderborn beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 at home.

Goals

4 goals took the match over the 2.5 line.

First Goal
S
29'⚽
Santiago Castañeda
Game Flow

Expected Goals (xG)

Paderborn 1.04 xG1899 Hoffenheim 1.76 xG
Cumulative · approximated from goal events
0'45'90'

SportSignals model forecast

Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip

1899 Hoffenheim to win

39%Missed

Result

Paderborn3:11899 Hoffenheim

PAD v 1899 Hoffenheim

Our model leaned 1899 Hoffenheim to win at 39%. Paderborn 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim. Forecast did not match the result.
📊 Match recap and data context

Paderborn beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 in Bundesliga play. Our model backed Hoffenheim to win at 39 percent probability; the pick missed. Paderborn struck twice before halftime through Santiago Castañeda in the 29th minute and Stefano Marino in the 42nd. Adam Daghim pulled one back for Hoffenheim in the 50th, but Paderborn added a third to seal the result. The home side extended their recent run to three wins in five matches. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.

Paderborn v 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga ·

More from this competition: Bundesliga predictions · Bundesliga odds

Player ratings

Who decided it

All 22
  1. Santiago CastañedaPAD★ MOTM1 goal · 90 min8.0
  2. Jano ter Horst90 min7.6
  3. Wouter Burger1899 Hoffenheim90 min7.3
  4. Jonah StickerPAD1 assist · 27 min7.3
  5. Steffen TiggesPAD1 goal · 44 min7.3

Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

Paderborn1899 HoffenheimBundesliga

The provider forecast gives 1899 Hoffenheim win the highest 1X2 probability at 39.1%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

PAD
38.5%
Draw
22.4%
1899 Hoffenheim
39.1%
Both teams to score · Yes
67.9%
Over 2.5 goals
68.8%

Full-time forecast audit: 1899 Hoffenheim win was the highest probability; the match result was Paderborn win.

Forecast result checked ·

Tips record

No Tip was published for this match

No selection qualified before kickoff, so there is no paid Tip to settle. The original model prediction and observed prices remain separate audit records.

Final pre-match decision · no Tip to settle

Current alternative Tips will be checked as this section comes into view
Match facts · what the record shows

Pre-match facts retained

The historical evidence saved at kick-off, kept separate from what happened in the match.

Head-to-head evidence

Pre-match historical evidence

  • 0-0is the most common scoreline between Paderborn and 1899 Hoffenheim, landing once across 4 league meetings on record.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 1/4recorded league meetings saw both teams score (25%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 2league matches at home unbeaten for Paderborn.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 1899Hoffenheim scored first in 7 of their last 10 league matches (70%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Paderborn have averaged 0.6 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 1899Hoffenheim have averaged 1.7 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Santiago Castañeda has the highest listed average xGOT for Paderborn at 0.40 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Andrej Kramaric has the highest listed average xGOT for 1899 Hoffenheim at 0.60 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot

Immutable kick-off snapshot · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.

Questions about this result

  • What was the final score in Paderborn vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
    PAD beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 in the Bundesliga.
  • Who scored the opening goal?
    Santiago Castañeda opened the scoring in the 29th minute.
  • Who scored in the match?
    Santiago Castañeda (29'), Stefano Marino (42'), Adam Daghim (50'), Steffen Tigges (69').
  • How many bookings were there?
    The referee showed 1 yellow card.
  • Who refereed the match?
    Daniel Schlager officiated.
  • When and where was the match played?
    PAD vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off on Sunday, 20 September 2026 UK time.
  • How many corners were there in the match?
    11 corners were taken across the 90 minutes.
  • Did the model call it right?
    Yes. The published pick was Over 2.5 goals, and it landed.
  • When do they play next?
    PAD play Paderborn on Saturday, 24 October 2026 UK time. 1899 Hoffenheim play Lyon on Thursday, 22 October 2026 UK time.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.