Skip to main content
Live
✦ SportSignals+ just now
Value SmartBetsNEW Props Predictions Live My Bets Alerts
Premier League · MW7 St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

From kick-off: live commentary, stats and in-play prices. No momentum for this competition.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa prediction, odds and how to watch

Kicks off in
5d 20h
Newcastle United 39%Draw 26%Aston Villa 34%
Kickoff and the final result. Lineups and goals are one switch more.
Skip match sections

Should you back Newcastle United or Aston Villa?

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa kicks off UK time in the Premier League. The match is at St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne. Our model's pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 44.9% modelled probability. These sides have met 2 times in the fixtures we hold, with Newcastle United winning 0, Aston Villa winning 1 and 1 drawn.

Match intelligence · not a tip

Newcastle United has the highest forecast probability · Over 2.5 goals is more likely

Match-result model updated
Match-result probability · model
Draw26.4%
BTTS yes59.1%

Updated

Over 2.555.1%

Updated

Head to head · last 6Full H2H →

No recorded meetings between these two sides yet.

Provider forecast · Prediction tab · Methodology

Match facts before kick-off

No approved historical Match Facts are available for this fixture. Nothing is inferred from missing provider coverage.

Match Facts feed warming up

Form & xG · last 6 games

Rolling across all competitions
7.5
xG for
11▲ +3.5
Goals
7.8
xGA
Last 6 matchesover-performing xG
10.0
xG for
12▲ +2.0
Goals
8.0
xGA
Last 6 matchesover-performing xG
Newcastle UnitedNewest first

Goalsoutlined xG

Newcastle United recent goals and expected goals, newest match first
MatchResultGoalsxG
1W21.36
2L10.77
3W12.02
4D20.59
5W20.69
6W32.11
Aston VillaNewest first

Goalsoutlined xG

Aston Villa recent goals and expected goals, newest match first
MatchResultGoalsxG
1D21.78
2W31.53
3W32.20
4L11.06
5W32.23
6D01.21
Newcastle United have taken more points than their chances were worth: 13 points against 8.0 expected. Aston Villa have taken more points than their chances were worth: 11 points against 9.8 expected.Expected points reruns each match from its chances alone.
Newcastle United generated 7.5 xG across their last 6 matches and scored 11, 3.5 above that chance total. Aston Villa generated 10.0 xG across their last 6 matches and scored 12, 2.0 above that chance total.

Team comparison · recent form

Newcastle United: 6 matches · Aston Villa: 6
Recent team comparison. Newcastle United sample 6; Aston Villa sample 6.
MeasureNewcastle UnitedAston Villa
Goals / game1.832
Conceded / game1.51.5
xG / game1.251.67
xG conceded / game1.31.33
Historical context, not stats from this fixture. xG coverage: 6 and 6 matches.Full team comparison
How to watch

How to watch Newcastle United v Aston Villa

Checking listings for your country…

Match information remains available while viewing options resolve privately.

Lineups

Probable XIs

Probable · confirmed ~16:30
Newcastle United11 starters
3Hall
4Botman
12Thiaw
2Trippier
8Tonali
28Willock
67Miley
11Barnes
10Gordon
9Wissa
23Murphy
Aston Villa11 starters
23Martínez
3Lindelöf
16García
7McGinn
8Tielemans
44Kamara
27Rogers
8Hemmings
21Luiz
19Iling-Junior
10Buendía
Out / doubtful
🩹 Tino Livramento injury · 🩹 Joelinton injury · 🩹 Dan Burn injury · 🩹 William Osula injury · 🩹 Amadou Onana injury · 🩹 Ian Maatsen injury
Changes
Most-frequent starters over the last 11 matches. Confirmed teams land about an hour before kickoff, and any change from this XI appears here.

Every linked name opens the player page · Full lineups and injuries →

📊 Match preview and data context

No AI summary available yet for this fixture.

SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.

Newcastle United v Aston Villa · Premier League ·

More from this competition: Premier League predictions · Premier League odds

Questions about this match

  • When and where is Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
    Newcastle United vs Aston Villa takes place on Saturday 17 October at 17:30 (UK time) in the Premier League at St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne.
  • Who is the model backing in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
    Our model's pick is Under 2.5 goals (totals), with around 45% confidence. No current price passed the integrity check. 18+. Predictions are informational, not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. begambleaware.org.
  • What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle United and Aston Villa?
    In their last 2 meetings, Newcastle United won 0, Aston Villa won 1, with 1 draw. Both teams scored in 0 of those 2.
  • How can I watch Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
    Check your local official broadcaster or rights-holder for Premier League coverage in your region. SportSignals does not stream matches.
  • Are SportSignals predictions for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa free?
    Yes. The model's predictions, odds comparison, stats and head-to-head for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa are free to read. 18+. Predictions are informational, not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. begambleaware.org.
Tips record

Tip decision pending

The pre-match publication window is still open. No Tip has been recorded yet, so this is not a no-Tip decision.

Latest possible publication cutoff · kickoff 17 Oct, 17:30 BST

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.