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Liga Portugal · MW4Ref: Carlos André Fernandes Macedo
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Nacional 2-3 Estrela Amadora result, stats and report

Nacional
Lost · xG 0.21
2 – 3
FT
Won · xG 1.39
Estrela Amadora
The Match Review, as soon as it publishes.
Next: Nacional v Sporting Braga · Sun 25 Oct · Estrela Amadora v Casa Pia · Sat 24 Oct
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

NacionalEstrela AmadoraLiga Portugal

The provider forecast gives Nacional win the highest 1X2 probability at 43.3%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

NAC
43.3%
Draw
27.9%
EST
28.8%
Both teams to score · Yes
51.1%
Over 2.5 goals
46.6%

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorewon
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultwon
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalslost
Over 3.5 goalslost
Full-time resultlost
Double chancewon
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveswon

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

43%
28%
29%
43.3%NAC
27.9%Draw
28.8%EST

Both Teams to Score

51%
Yes 51.1%No 48.9%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

47%
Yes 46.6%No 53.4%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
25%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
12.8%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
8.5%
2-0
7.7%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates NAC or draw at 51.0%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 49.7%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 5.6%.

Double Chance

1X
51.0%
12
8.6%
X2
40.4%

Half-Time Result

NAC
29.0%
Draw
49.7%
EST
21.3%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
NAC
Draw
EST
NAC
23.1%
4.9%
1.9%
Draw
16.9%
20.9%
11.0%
EST
2.8%
5.0%
13.6%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
5.6%
No
94.4%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.