This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.
Nacional 1-3 Alverca result, stats and report
Who won Nacional vs Alverca?
Nacional 1-3 Alverca, full time in Liga Portugal. Played UK time. Our model's pre-match pick was Both teams to score, which landed. Before this meeting the sides had met once in the fixtures we hold, and Nacional won it.
Editorial publication status
No Match Review published
The final score and match data are available elsewhere in this Match Centre.
No minute-by-minute record was captured for this match, so the shape of it is not drawn.
Nacional 1–3 Alverca
Nacional have built one of the most disciplined home records in Liga Portugal this season, but the real story on Sunday is just how badly Alverca have fallen apart on the road. This is a tactical matchup with a very clear shape to it.
Alverca won 3-1 away at Nacional.
4 goals took the match over the 2.5 line.
Expected Goals (xG)
SportSignals model forecast
Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip
Nacional to win
Result
1:3
NAC v ALV
📊 Match recap and data context
Nacional fell to Alverca 1-3 in Liga Portugal, a result that saw our model's pick for a Nacional win at 46% probability miss the mark. The visitors dominated despite arriving in poor form, having won just one of their last five matches. Nacional's defensive vulnerabilities proved costly; the hosts managed only one goal in response to Alverca's clinical finishing. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.
Nacional v Alverca · Liga Portugal ·
More from this competition: Liga Portugal predictions · Liga Portugal odds
Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip
How the forecast compared
The provider forecast gives Nacional win the highest 1X2 probability at 46.3%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.
- NAC
- 46.3%
- Draw
- 25.5%
- ALV
- 28.2%
- Both teams to score · Yes
- 57.8%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54.6%
Full-time forecast audit: Nacional win was the highest probability; the match result was Alverca win.
Forecast result checked ·
No Tip was published for this match
No selection qualified before kickoff, so there is no paid Tip to settle. The original model prediction and observed prices remain separate audit records.
Final pre-match decision · no Tip to settle
Pre-match facts retained
The historical evidence saved at kick-off, kept separate from what happened in the match.
Pre-match historical evidence
- 1-0is the most common scoreline between Nacional and Alverca, landing 2 times across 2 league meetings on record.Immutable kick-off snapshot
- Nacional scored first in 6 of their last 10 league matches (60%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
- Alverca scored first in 4 of their last 10 league matches (40%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
- Nacional have averaged 1.2 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
- Alverca have averaged 0.8 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
- Pablo Ruan has the highest listed average xGOT for Nacional at 0.31 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot
- Ian Luccas has the highest listed average xGOT for Alverca at 0.65 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot
Immutable kick-off snapshot · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.
Questions about this result
What was the final score in Nacional vs Alverca?
ALV beat NAC 3-1 in the Liga Portugal.Who scored the opening goal?
Chissumba opened the scoring in the 34th minute.Who scored in the match?
Chissumba (34'), Dawda Camara (36'), Dawda Camara (42'), Matchoi Djaló (81').How many bookings were there?
The referee showed 3 yellow cards.Who refereed the match?
Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca officiated.When and where was the match played?
NAC vs ALV kicked off on Saturday, 12 September 2026 UK time.How many corners were there in the match?
2 corners were taken across the 90 minutes.Did the model call it right?
Yes. The published pick was Both teams to score, and it landed.When do they play next?
NAC play Rio Ave on Sunday, 11 October 2026 UK time. ALV play Famalicão on Monday, 12 October 2026 UK time.
Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.