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By SportSignals Match Desk · Football analysis desk ·
Millwall led twice at The Den but a Deji Elerewe red card in the 84th minute allowed Lincoln City to complete a dramatic comeback and claim a point that the stats suggest they barely deserved.
Millwall led twice at The Den but a Deji Elerewe red card in the 84th minute allowed Lincoln City to complete a dramatic comeback and claim a point that the stats suggest they barely deserved.
EFL ChampionshipSat 17 Oct, 12:30
Key Takeaways
Result
Millwall and Lincoln City drew 2-2.
Goals
4 goals took the match over the 2.5 line.
First Goal
A
1'⚽
Andrei Coubiș
RAssist: Rob Street
Game Flow
Expected Goals (xG)
Millwall 1.86 xGLincoln City 0.73 xG
Cumulative · approximated from goal events
SportSignals model forecast
Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip
Millwall to win
37%Missed
Result
2:2
Millwall v LNC
Our model leaned Millwall to win at 37%. Millwall 2-2 Lincoln City. Forecast did not match the result.
📊 Match recap and data context
Millwall host Lincoln City at The Den on Saturday, October 17th at 11:30 UTC in the EFL Championship. Millwall have won one of their last five matches with one draw, while Lincoln have matched that record but both sides have conceded in half their recent games for Millwall and all of Lincoln's. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.
The provider forecast gives Millwall win the highest 1X2 probability at 37.3%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.
Millwall
37.3%
Draw
25.9%
LNC
36.9%
Both teams to score · Yes
55.6%
Over 2.5 goals
51.5%
Full-time forecast audit: Millwall win was the highest probability; the match result was draw.
Forecast result checked ·
Tips record
No Tip was published for this match
No selection qualified before kickoff, so there is no paid Tip to settle. The original model prediction and observed prices remain separate audit records.
Final pre-match decision · no Tip to settle
Current alternative Tips will be checked as this section comes into view
Match facts · what the record shows
10 facts from this result
The final verified live-context record and historical evidence saved before kick-off, kept as separate evidence sets.
For Lincoln City, the final recorded goal situation matched 2 comparable matches from 10 checked matches: 0% win, 100% draw, 0% loss.Verified final
For Millwall, the final recorded goal situation matched 25 comparable matches from 100 checked matches: 0% win, 100% draw, 0% loss.Verified final
For Lincoln City, the final recorded sending-off situation matched 2 comparable matches from 10 checked matches: 0% win, 100% draw, 0% loss.Verified final
For Millwall, the final recorded sending-off situation matched 25 comparable matches from 100 checked matches: 0% win, 100% draw, 0% loss.Verified final
Captured from live match context at . This is a retained situation record, not a post-match performance claim.
Pre-match historical evidence
Millwall scored first in 7 of their last 10 league matches (70%).Immutable lifecycle evidence
Lincoln City scored first in 5 of their last 10 league matches (50%).Immutable lifecycle evidence
Millwall have averaged 1.6 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable lifecycle evidence
Lincoln City have averaged 0.7 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable lifecycle evidence
Lyndon Dykes has the highest listed average xGOT for Millwall at 0.57 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable lifecycle evidence
Reeco Hackett has the highest listed average xGOT for Lincoln City at 0.71 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable lifecycle evidence
Immutable lifecycle evidence · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.
Questions about this result
▸What was the final score in Millwall vs Lincoln City?