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Ligue 1 · MW5 Stade Orange Vélodrome, MarseilleRef: François Letexier
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint Germain result, stats and report

Marseille
Lost · xG 1.67
1 – 2
FT 08:35
Won · xG 4.39
Paris Saint Germain
Next: Sturm Graz v Marseille · Thu 22 Oct · Paris Saint Germain v Barcelona · Tue 20 Oct
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

MarseilleParis Saint GermainLigue 1

The provider forecast gives Paris Saint Germain win the highest 1X2 probability at 47.3%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

Marseille
29.3%
Draw
23.4%
Paris Saint Germain
47.3%
Both teams to score · Yes
60.0%
Over 2.5 goals
59.9%

Full-time forecast audit: Paris Saint Germain win was the highest probability; the match result was Paris Saint Germain win.

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorewon
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultlost
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalswon
Over 3.5 goalswon
Full-time resultwon
Double chancewon
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveswon

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

29%
23%
47%
29.3%Marseille
23.4%Draw
47.3%Paris Saint Germain

Both Teams to Score

60%
Yes 60.0%No 40.0%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

60%
Yes 59.9%No 40.1%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
37%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
10.2%
1-2
9.8%
0-1
7.7%
2-1
7.2%
0-2
7.0%
1-0
6.3%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates Paris Saint Germain or draw at 50.7%; the most likely half-time state is Paris Saint Germain leading at half-time at 38.6%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 4.6%.

Double Chance

1X
44.2%
12
5.1%
X2
50.7%

Half-Time Result

Marseille
26.0%
Draw
35.5%
Paris Saint Germain
38.6%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
Marseille
Draw
Paris Saint Germain
Marseille
18.5%
4.3%
3.7%
Draw
10.8%
12.9%
11.4%
Paris Saint Germain
2.0%
5.1%
31.4%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
4.6%
No
95.4%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.