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La Liga · MW6Ref: Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Málaga 1-3 Villarreal result, stats and report

Málaga
Málaga
Lost · xG 0.66
1 – 3
FT 13:16
Villarreal
Won · xG 3.48
Villarreal
Match review
Next: Sporting Alcázar v Málaga · Tue 27 Oct · Valencia v Villarreal · Sat 24 Oct
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Who won Málaga vs Villarreal?

Málaga 1-3 Villarreal, full time in La Liga. Played UK time. Our model's pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals, which did not land.

How it played out

Villarreal won it 3–1

MLAVillarreal

No minute-by-minute record was captured for this match, so the shape of it is not drawn.

Verified final · revision 4 · 13:16Full stats
Match StoryFull breakdown

Málaga 1–3 Villarreal

Villarreal put Málaga to the sword with a 3-1 victory in La Liga, with Pape Gueye stealing the show on a night when the home side were thoroughly outclassed in every department that matters.

La LigaThu 17 Sept, 20:30
Key Takeaways
Result

Villarreal won 3-1 away at Málaga.

Goals

4 goals took the match over the 2.5 line.

Chance quality

The chances backed the result: Málaga 0.66 to Villarreal 3.48 on expected goals.

First Goal
C
12'⚽
Carlos Dotor
JAssist: Juan Cruz
Game Flow

Expected Goals (xG)

Málaga 0.66 xGVillarreal 3.48 xG
Cumulative · approximated from goal events
0'45'90'

SportSignals model forecast

Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip

Málaga to win

43%Missed

Result

Málaga1:3Villarreal

MLA v Villarreal

Our model leaned Málaga to win at 43%. Málaga 1-3 Villarreal. Forecast did not match the result.
📊 Match recap and data context

Villarreal won 3-1 at Málaga in La Liga. Our model favored a Málaga victory at 43 percent probability; the pick missed. Málaga took an early lead through Carlos Dotor in the 12th minute, but Villarreal equalized before halftime via Alberto Moleiro and added a second through Pape Gueye in stoppage time to secure the away win. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.

Málaga v Villarreal · La Liga ·

More from this competition: La Liga predictions · La Liga odds

Player ratings

Who decided it

All 22
  1. Pape GueyeVillarreal★ MOTM2 goals · 53 min8.6
  2. Alberto MoleiroVillarreal1 goal · 80 min8.3
  3. Alex Freeman90 min7.2
  4. Tajon BuchananVillarreal90 min7.0
  5. Ilias Akhomach1 assist · 63 min7.0

Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

MálagaVillarrealLa Liga

The provider forecast gives Málaga win the highest 1X2 probability at 43.1%. A separately qualified SportSignals Tip has an official settlement record for this fixture.

MLA
43.1%
Draw
27.3%
Villarreal
29.6%
Both teams to score · Yes
54.7%
Over 2.5 goals
50.1%

Full-time forecast audit: Málaga win was the highest probability; the match result was Villarreal win.

Forecast result checked ·

Tip record · publication ledgerProof it was published before kickoffImmutable
✦ TIP

SportSignals Tip settlement

Official terminal ledger · each row keeps its exact result
La Liga· published 03:55lost
Under 2.5 goals

Logged at 2.42 with Betfair Exchange

Betfair Exchange offered 2.42 when we checked at 01:05 on 17 Sept.

Betfair Exchange is a betting exchange. It takes a small commission from winnings.

Publication provenance
  • Immutable Tips ledger · record a84db727-63da-4928-88d0-99bbaeba6e15 · model publication version not recorded

Source: immutable SportSignals Tips publication ledger. Provider predictions and market prices are separate records and never create a Tip or a settlement result.

Match facts · what the record shows

Pre-match facts retained

The historical evidence saved at kick-off, kept separate from what happened in the match.

Head-to-head evidence

Pre-match historical evidence

  • 1-1is the most common scoreline between Málaga and Villarreal, landing 3 times across 10 league meetings on record.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 4/10recorded league meetings saw both teams score (40%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 2league matches at home unbeaten for Málaga.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Málaga scored first in 2 of their last 10 league matches (20%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Villarreal scored first in 6 of their last 10 league matches (60%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Málaga have averaged 0.6 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Villarreal have averaged 2.0 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Adrián Niño has the highest listed average xGOT for Málaga at 0.57 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Gerard Moreno has the highest listed average xGOT for Villarreal at 0.62 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot

Immutable kick-off snapshot · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.

Questions about this result

  • What was the final score in Málaga vs Villarreal?
    Villarreal beat MLA 3-1 in the La Liga.
  • Who scored the opening goal?
    Carlos Dotor opened the scoring in the 12th minute.
  • Who scored in the match?
    Carlos Dotor (12'), Alberto Moleiro (40'), Pape Gueye (47'), Pape Gueye (86').
  • How many bookings were there?
    The referee showed 6 yellow cards.
  • Who refereed the match?
    Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias officiated.
  • When and where was the match played?
    MLA vs Villarreal kicked off on Thursday, 17 September 2026 UK time.
  • How many corners were there in the match?
    12 corners were taken across the 90 minutes.
  • Did the model call it right?
    No. The published pick was Under 2.5 goals, and it did not land.
  • When do they play next?
    MLA play Sporting Alcázar on Tuesday, 27 October 2026 UK time. Villarreal play Valencia on Saturday, 24 October 2026 UK time.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.