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By SportSignals Match Desk · Football analysis desk ·
Brest dominated large portions of this Ligue 1 fixture but had to settle for a point after Olivier Giroud converted from the spot to cancel out Mama Baldé's early opener. Lille were second best for long stretches and will know it.
Brest dominated large portions of this Ligue 1 fixture but had to settle for a point after Olivier Giroud converted from the spot to cancel out Mama Baldé's early opener. Lille were second best for long stretches and will know it.
Ligue 1Sat 17 Oct, 19:45
Key Takeaways
Result
Lille and Stade Brestois 29 drew 1-1.
Goals
Two goals kept the match under the 2.5 line.
First Goal
M
6'⚽
Mama Baldé
GAssist: Gautier Lloris
Game Flow
Expected Goals (xG)
Lille 2.01 xGStade Brestois 29 0.52 xG
Cumulative · approximated from goal events
📊 Match recap and data context
Lille and Stade Brestois drew 1-1 at the Decathlon Arena. Mama Baldé put Brest ahead in the sixth minute, but Olivier Giroud levelled from the penalty spot in the 64th. Our model favoured Lille at 54 percent probability; the pick missed. Both teams found the net despite Lille's recent form showing just 20 percent both-teams-scoring rate against Brest's 80 percent over their last five matches. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.
The provider forecast gives Lille win the highest 1X2 probability at 53.5%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.
Lille
53.5%
Draw
24.6%
Stade Brestois 29
21.8%
Both teams to score · Yes
50.4%
Over 2.5 goals
49.4%
Full-time forecast audit: Lille win was the highest probability; the match result was draw.
Forecast result checked ·
Tips record
No Tip was published for this match
No selection qualified before kickoff, so there is no paid Tip to settle. The original model prediction and observed prices remain separate audit records.
For Stade Brestois 29, the final recorded goal situation matched 6 comparable matches from 19 checked matches: 0% win, 100% draw, 0% loss.Verified final
For Stade Brestois 29, the final recorded goal situation matched 23 comparable matches from 100 checked matches: 0% win, 100% draw, 0% loss.Verified final
For Lille, the final recorded goal situation matched 6 comparable matches from 19 checked matches: 0% win, 100% draw, 0% loss.Verified final
For Lille, the final recorded goal situation matched 25 comparable matches from 100 checked matches: 0% win, 100% draw, 0% loss.Verified final
Captured from live match context at . This is a retained situation record, not a post-match performance claim.
Pre-match historical evidence
1-1is the most common scoreline between Lille and Stade Brestois 29, landing 3 times across 13 league meetings on record.Immutable lifecycle evidence
7/13recorded league meetings saw both teams score (53.9%).Immutable lifecycle evidence
44league matches at home unbeaten for Lille.Immutable lifecycle evidence
Lille scored first in 8 of their last 10 league matches (80%).Immutable lifecycle evidence
Stade Brestois 29 scored first in 5 of their last 10 league matches (50%).Immutable lifecycle evidence
Lille have averaged 1.2 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable lifecycle evidence
Immutable lifecycle evidence · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.
Questions about this result
▸What was the final score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?