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2. Bundesliga · MW4Ref: Tobias Stieler
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Holstein Kiel 2-2 Nürnberg result, stats and report

Holstein Kiel
Drew · xG 0.84
2 – 2
FT 07:05
Drew · xG 0.96
Nürnberg
Next: Holstein Kiel v Hertha BSC · Fri 16 Oct · Energie Cottbus v Nürnberg · Fri 16 Oct
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

Holstein KielNürnberg2. Bundesliga

The provider forecast gives Holstein Kiel win the highest 1X2 probability at 40.6%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

HKI
40.6%
Draw
25.0%
NUR
34.4%
Both teams to score · Yes
59.1%
Over 2.5 goals
57.4%

Full-time forecast audit: Holstein Kiel win was the highest probability; the match result was draw.

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorewon
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultwon
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalswon
Over 3.5 goalslost
Full-time resultlost
Double chancewon
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveswon

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

41%
25%
34%
40.6%HKI
25.0%Draw
34.4%NUR

Both Teams to Score

59%
Yes 59.1%No 40.9%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

57%
Yes 57.4%No 42.6%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
35%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
11.0%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
8.0%
0-1
7.1%
2-2
6.2%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates HKI or draw at 49.9%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 37.3%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 7.1%.

Double Chance

1X
49.9%
12
5.9%
X2
44.1%

Half-Time Result

HKI
32.9%
Draw
37.3%
NUR
29.8%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
HKI
Draw
NUR
HKI
24.2%
5.0%
3.3%
Draw
12.7%
14.1%
11.3%
NUR
2.7%
5.4%
21.4%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
7.1%
No
92.9%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.