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EFL Championship · MW11 Pride Park Stadium, DerbyRef: Oliver Langford
Full time

This match had live commentary, stats and in-play prices; no momentum.

Derby 0-1 Stoke City result, stats and report

Derby
Derby
Lost · xG 1.32
0 – 1
FT 04:25
Stoke City
Won · xG 0.79
Stoke City
Match review
Next: Derby v Norwich · Tue 3 Nov · Blackburn v Stoke City · Tue 3 Nov
Skip match sections

Who won Derby vs Stoke City?

Derby 0-1 Stoke City, full time in the EFL Championship. Played UK time. Our model's pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals, which landed. Before this meeting the sides had met once in the fixtures we hold, and Derby won it.

How it played out

Stoke City won it 1–0

DerbyStoke City

No minute-by-minute record was captured for this match, so the shape of it is not drawn.

Verified final · revision 2 · 02:05Full stats
Match StoryFull breakdown

Derby 0–1 Stoke City

Stoke City claimed a deserved 1-0 victory at Pride Park on Saturday, with Luke Graham's second-half header proving the difference as Derby extended their winless run to five Championship matches.

EFL ChampionshipSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Key Takeaways
Result

Stoke City won 1-0 away at Derby.

Goals

A single goal kept the match under the 2.5 line.

First Goal
L
49'⚽
Luke Graham
EAssist: Ethan Galbraith
Game Flow

Expected Goals (xG)

Derby 1.32 xGStoke City 0.79 xG
Cumulative · approximated from goal events
0'45'90'

SportSignals model forecast

Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip

Derby to win

37%Missed

Result

Derby0:1Stoke City

Derby v Stoke City

Our model leaned Derby to win at 37%. Derby 0-1 Stoke City. Forecast did not match the result.
📊 Match recap and data context

Derby County host Stoke City at Pride Park Stadium on October 17th at 2 p.m. UTC in the EFL Championship. Derby have won two of their last two head-to-head meetings, though recent form shows just one win in five league games. Both sides have registered both teams to score in their last five outings. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.

Derby v Stoke City · EFL Championship ·

More from this competition: EFL Championship predictions · EFL Championship odds

Player ratings

Who decided it

All 22
  1. Luke GrahamStoke City★ MOTM1 goal · 90 min8.1
  2. Carlton MorrisDerby90 min7.5
  3. Djibril SoumaréStoke City90 min7.4
  4. Dion SandersonDerby90 min7.3
  5. Ethan GalbraithStoke City1 assist · 90 min7.2

Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

DerbyStoke CityEFL Championship

The provider forecast gives Derby win the highest 1X2 probability at 37.0%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

Derby
37.0%
Draw
27.1%
Stoke City
35.8%
Both teams to score · Yes
52.3%
Over 2.5 goals
46.5%

Full-time forecast audit: Derby win was the highest probability; the match result was Stoke City win.

Forecast result checked ·

Tips record

No Tip was published for this match

No selection qualified before kickoff, so there is no paid Tip to settle. The original model prediction and observed prices remain separate audit records.

Final pre-match decision · no Tip to settle

Current alternative Tips will be checked as this section comes into view
Match facts · what the record shows

10 facts from this result

The final verified live-context record and historical evidence saved before kick-off, kept as separate evidence sets.

Head-to-head evidence

Final live-fact record

  • For Stoke City, the final recorded goal situation matched 3 comparable matches from 20 checked matches: 100% win, 0% draw, 0% loss.Verified final
  • For Stoke City, the final recorded goal situation matched 17 comparable matches from 100 checked matches: 100% win, 0% draw, 0% loss.Verified final
  • For Derby, the final recorded goal situation matched 3 comparable matches from 20 checked matches: 0% win, 0% draw, 100% loss.Verified final
  • For Derby, the final recorded goal situation matched 31 comparable matches from 100 checked matches: 0% win, 0% draw, 100% loss.Verified final

Captured from live match context at . This is a retained situation record, not a post-match performance claim.

Pre-match historical evidence

  • 0-0is the most common scoreline between Derby and Stoke City, landing 3 times across 12 league meetings on record.Immutable lifecycle evidence
  • 6/12recorded league meetings saw both teams score (50%).Immutable lifecycle evidence
  • 3league matches away from home unbeaten for Stoke City.Immutable lifecycle evidence
  • Derby scored first in 4 of their last 10 league matches (40%).Immutable lifecycle evidence
  • Stoke City scored first in 7 of their last 10 league matches (70%).Immutable lifecycle evidence
  • Derby have averaged 0.9 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable lifecycle evidence

Immutable lifecycle evidence · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.

Questions about this result

  • What was the final score in Derby vs Stoke City?
    Stoke City beat Derby 1-0 in the EFL Championship at Pride Park Stadium.
  • Who scored the opening goal?
    Luke Graham opened the scoring in the 49th minute.
  • Who scored in the match?
    Luke Graham (49').
  • How many bookings were there?
    The referee showed 1 yellow card.
  • Who refereed the match?
    Oliver Langford officiated.
  • When and where was the match played?
    Derby vs Stoke City kicked off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 UK time at Pride Park Stadium.
  • How many corners were there in the match?
    10 corners were taken across the 90 minutes.
  • Did the model call it right?
    Yes. The published pick was Under 2.5 goals, and it landed.
  • When do they play next?
    Derby play Norwich on Tuesday, 3 November 2026 UK time. Stoke City play Blackburn on Tuesday, 3 November 2026 UK time.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.