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EFL Championship · MW11 Turf Moor, BurnleyRef: Lewis Smith

From kick-off: live commentary, stats and in-play prices. No momentum for this competition.

Burnley vs Wolves prediction, odds and how to watch

Kicks off in
3h 22m
Burnley 40%Draw 28%Wolves 32%
Kickoff and the final result. Lineups and goals are one switch more.
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Should you back Burnley or Wolves?

Burnley vs Wolves kicks off UK time in the EFL Championship. The match is at Turf Moor, Burnley. Our model's pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 57% modelled probability. These sides have met 2 times in the fixtures we hold, with Burnley winning 1, Wolves winning 0 and 1 drawn.

Match intelligence · not a tip

Burnley has the highest forecast probability · Under 2.5 goals is more likely

Match-result model updated
Match-result probability · model
Burnley40.4%
Draw28.0%
Wolves31.6%
BTTS yes49.0%

Updated

Over 2.543.0%

Updated

Head to head · last 6Full H2H →

No recorded meetings between these two sides yet.

Provider forecast · Prediction tab · Methodology

Match facts

Match facts before kick-off

Head-to-head evidence
  • 0-0is the most common scoreline between Burnley and Wolves, landing once across 2 league meetings on record.Latest pre-match snapshot
  • 1/2recorded league meetings saw both teams score (50%).Latest pre-match snapshot
  • 48league matches at home unbeaten for Burnley.Latest pre-match snapshot
  • Burnley scored first in 6 of their last 10 league matches (60%).Latest pre-match snapshot
  • Wolves scored first in 5 of their last 10 league matches (50%).Latest pre-match snapshot
  • Burnley have averaged 1.5 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Latest pre-match snapshot
  • Wolves have averaged 1.6 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Latest pre-match snapshot
  • Ashley Barnes has the highest listed average xGOT for Burnley at 0.48 across the provider's evidence window.Latest pre-match snapshot
  • Jean-Ricner Bellegarde has the highest listed average xGOT for Wolves at 0.88 across the provider's evidence window.Latest pre-match snapshot
Swipe or use arrows · 1 of 9

Useful historical patterns from our match facts feed, with the evidence window stated in each claim.Source: match facts feed · · Scope: league matches

Match Facts feed current.

Form & xG · last 6 games

Rolling across all competitions
7.2
xG for
10▲ +2.8
Goals
8.7
xGA
Last 6 matchesover-performing xG
8.8
xG for
5▼ -3.8
Goals
5.8
xGA
Last 6 matchesunder-performing xG
BurnleyNewest first

Goalsoutlined xG

Burnley recent goals and expected goals, newest match first
MatchResultGoalsxG
1D21.55
2W41.66
3D10.81
4L11.24
5D11.57
6L10.34
WolvesNewest first

Goalsoutlined xG

Wolves recent goals and expected goals, newest match first
MatchResultGoalsxG
1L12.44
2L00.69
3W11.97
4L00.34
5W12.04
6D21.36
Burnley have taken fewer points than their chances were worth: 6 points against 7.2 expected. Wolves have taken fewer points than their chances were worth: 7 points against 10.2 expected.Expected points reruns each match from its chances alone.
Burnley generated 7.2 xG across their last 6 matches and scored 10, 2.8 above that chance total. Wolves generated 8.8 xG across their last 6 matches and scored 5, 3.8 below that chance total.

Team comparison · recent form

Burnley: 6 matches · Wolves: 6
Recent team comparison. Burnley sample 6; Wolves sample 6.
MeasureBurnleyWolves
Goals / game1.670.83
Conceded / game1.51.17
xG / game1.21.47
xG conceded / game1.450.97
Historical context, not stats from this fixture. xG coverage: 6 and 6 matches.Full team comparison
How to watch

How to watch Burnley v Wolves

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Match information remains available while viewing options resolve privately.

Lineups

Probable XIs

Probable · confirmed ~19:00
Burnley11 starters
13Weiß
2Walker
23Pires
18Ekdal
6Tuanzebe
29Laurent
20Ward-Prowse
28Hannibal
7Larsen
11Anthony
27Broja
Out / doubtful
No recorded injuries or doubts for either side.
Changes
Most-frequent starters over the last 11 matches. Confirmed teams land about an hour before kickoff, and any change from this XI appears here.

Every linked name opens the player page · Full lineups and injuries →

📊 Match preview and data context

Burnley have lost all five recent matches though both sides show 60% BTTS rates. Wolves arrive on stronger form with two wins in their last five, but the head-to-head favours the hosts with one win and one draw from two meetings. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.

Burnley v Wolves · EFL Championship ·

More from this competition: EFL Championship predictions · EFL Championship odds

Questions about this match

  • When and where is Burnley vs Wolves?
    Burnley vs Wolves takes place on Friday 16 October at 20:00 (UK time) in the EFL Championship at Turf Moor, Burnley.
  • Who is the model backing in Burnley vs Wolves?
    Our model's pick is Under 2.5 goals (totals), with around 57% confidence. No current price passed the integrity check. 18+. Predictions are informational, not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. begambleaware.org.
  • What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wolves?
    In their last 2 meetings, Burnley won 1, Wolves won 0, with 1 draw. Both teams scored in 2 of those 2.
  • How can I watch Burnley vs Wolves?
    Check your local official broadcaster or rights-holder for EFL Championship coverage in your region. SportSignals does not stream matches.
  • Are SportSignals predictions for Burnley vs Wolves free?
    Yes. The model's predictions, odds comparison, stats and head-to-head for Burnley vs Wolves are free to read. 18+. Predictions are informational, not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. begambleaware.org.
Tips record

Tip decision pending

The pre-match publication window is still open. No Tip has been recorded yet, so this is not a no-Tip decision.

Latest possible publication cutoff · kickoff 16 Oct, 20:00 BST

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.