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La Liga 2 · MW5Ref: Gorka Etayo Herrera
Full time

Burgos 3-1 Ceuta result, stats and report

Burgos
Burgos
Won · xG 0.76
3 – 1
FT 08:15
Ceuta
Lost · xG 0.88
Ceuta
The Match Review, as soon as it publishes.
Next: Las Palmas v Burgos · Sun 20 Sept · Ceuta v Real Valladolid · Sun 20 Sept
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Who won Burgos vs Ceuta?

Burgos 3-1 Ceuta, full time in La Liga 2. Played UK time. Our model's pre-match pick was Both teams to score — No, which did not land. Before this meeting the sides had met once in the fixtures we hold, and it was drawn.

Editorial publication status

Match Review being prepared

The final score and match data are available elsewhere in this Match Centre. No editorial Review has been published yet.

How it played out

BUR won it 3–1

BURCEU

No minute-by-minute record was captured for this match, so the shape of it is not drawn.

Verified final · revision 4 · 08:15Full stats
Match StoryFull breakdown

Burgos 3–1 Ceuta

Burgos arrive at this fixture on the back of four wins from their last five and will fancy their chances against a Ceuta side that has conceded seven goals in their opening two league games.

La Liga 2Fri 11 Sept, 19:30
Key Takeaways
Result

Burgos beat Ceuta 3-1 at home.

Goals

4 goals took the match over the 2.5 line.

First Goal
C
14'⚽
Carlos Hernández
KAssist: Kuki Zalazar
Game Flow

Expected Goals (xG)

Burgos 0.76 xGCeuta 0.88 xG
Cumulative · approximated from goal events
0'45'90'

SportSignals model forecast

Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip

Burgos to win

57%Matched

Result

Burgos3:1Ceuta

BUR v CEU

Our model called Burgos to win at 57%. Burgos 3-1 Ceuta. Forecast matched the result.
📊 Match recap and data context

Burgos defeated Ceuta 3-1 in La Liga 2, landing our model's pick of a Burgos win at 57% probability. The home side controlled the match decisively, breaking through Ceuta's defence three times while keeping the visitors to a single goal. Burgos have now won two of their last five, extending their recent run of clean sheets; Ceuta's inability to generate their typical attacking threat proved costly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.

Burgos v Ceuta · La Liga 2 ·

Player ratings

Who decided it

All 22
  1. Kuki ZalazarCEU★ MOTM1 assist · 90 min8.1
  2. Jon Karrikaburu1 goal · 1 assist · 66 min7.6
  3. Carlos HernándezCEU1 goal · 90 min7.3
  4. David GonzálezBUR1 assist · 90 min7.2
  5. Curro SánchezBUR81 min6.9

Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

BurgosCeutaLa Liga 2

The provider forecast gives Burgos win the highest 1X2 probability at 57.1%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

BUR
57.1%
Draw
25.6%
CEU
17.2%
Both teams to score · Yes
43.5%
Over 2.5 goals
43.3%

Full-time forecast audit: Burgos win was the highest probability; the match result was Burgos win.

Forecast result checked ·

Tips record

No Tip was published for this match

No selection qualified before kickoff, so there is no paid Tip to settle. The original model prediction and observed prices remain separate audit records.

Final pre-match decision · no Tip to settle

Current alternative Tips will be checked as this section comes into view
Match facts · what the record shows

Pre-match facts retained

The historical evidence saved at kick-off, kept separate from what happened in the match.

Head-to-head evidence

Pre-match historical evidence

  • 1-0is the most common scoreline between Burgos and Ceuta, landing once across 2 league meetings on record.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 1/2recorded league meetings saw both teams score (50%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 30league matches at home unbeaten for Burgos.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Burgos scored first in 4 of their last 10 league matches (40%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Ceuta scored first in 3 of their last 10 league matches (30%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Burgos have averaged 1.0 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Ceuta have averaged 0.8 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Álex Forés has the highest listed average xGOT for Burgos at 0.90 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Jordi Escobar has the highest listed average xGOT for Ceuta at 0.40 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot

Immutable kick-off snapshot · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.

Questions about this result

  • What was the final score in Burgos vs Ceuta?
    BUR beat CEU 3-1 in the La Liga 2.
  • Who scored the opening goal?
    Carlos Hernández opened the scoring in the 14th minute.
  • Who scored in the match?
    Carlos Hernández (14'), Alberto Dadie (20'), Jon Karrikaburu (48'), Carlos Redru (81', og).
  • How many bookings were there?
    The referee showed 5 yellow cards.
  • Who refereed the match?
    Gorka Etayo Herrera officiated.
  • When and where was the match played?
    BUR vs CEU kicked off on Friday, 11 September 2026 UK time.
  • How many corners were there in the match?
    8 corners were taken across the 90 minutes.
  • Did the model call it right?
    No. The published pick was Both teams to score — No, and it did not land.
  • When do they play next?
    BUR play Las Palmas on Sunday, 20 September 2026 UK time. CEU play Ceuta on Sunday, 20 September 2026 UK time.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.