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Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen kicks off UK time in the Bundesliga. The match is at BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund. Our model's pick is Both teams to score — No at a 51% modelled probability. These sides have met 2 times in the fixtures we hold, with Borussia Dortmund winning 2, Werder Bremen winning 0 and 0 drawn.
Match intelligence · not a tip
Borussia Dortmund has the highest forecast probability · Over 2.5 goals is more likely
1-2is the most common scoreline between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen, landing 4 times across 23 league meetings on record.Latest pre-match snapshot
17/23recorded league meetings saw both teams score (73.9%).Latest pre-match snapshot
41league matches at home unbeaten for Borussia Dortmund.Latest pre-match snapshot
Borussia Dortmund scored first in 5 of their last 10 league matches (50%).Latest pre-match snapshot
Werder Bremen scored first in 3 of their last 10 league matches (30%).Latest pre-match snapshot
Borussia Dortmund have averaged 1.9 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Latest pre-match snapshot
Werder Bremen have averaged 1.4 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Latest pre-match snapshot
Luca Reggiani has the highest listed average xGOT for Borussia Dortmund at 0.82 across the provider's evidence window.Latest pre-match snapshot
Niclas Füllkrug has the highest listed average xGOT for Werder Bremen at 0.58 across the provider's evidence window.Latest pre-match snapshot
Swipe or use arrows · 1 of 9
Useful historical patterns from our match facts feed, with the evidence window stated in each claim.Source: match facts feed · · Scope: league matches
Borussia Dortmund recent goals and expected goals, newest match first
Match
Result
Goals
xG
1
W
1
1.55
2
W
3
1.64
3
W
3
2.75
4
W
3
Unavailable
5
W
2
1.12
6
W
2
2.62
Werder BremenNewest first
W3 / 2.4
D1 / 1.2
W3 / –
L1 / 0.3
L0 / 0.7
L0 / 0.9
Goals · outlined xG · xG available for 5 of 6
Werder Bremen recent goals and expected goals, newest match first
Match
Result
Goals
xG
1
W
3
2.41
2
D
1
1.17
3
W
3
Unavailable
4
L
1
0.25
5
L
0
0.68
6
L
0
0.95
Borussia Dortmund have taken more points than their chances were worth: 12 points against 8.2 expected.Expected points reruns each match from its chances alone.
Borussia Dortmund generated 9.7 xG across 5 of their last 6 matches with xG data and scored 11, 1.3 above that chance total. Werder Bremen generated 5.5 xG across 5 of their last 6 matches with xG data and scored 5, 0.5 below that chance total.
By SportSignals Match Desk · Football analysis desk ·
Borussia Dortmund host Werder Bremen at Signal Iduna Park on Saturday 10 October 2026, and the evidence points firmly in one direction. Bremen are shipping goals, losing matches, and arriving at the worst possible venue.
Our model backs Borussia Dortmund to win at home against Werder Bremen on October 9 at 18:30 UTC, assigning the pick a 65 percent probability. Dortmund have won three of their last five matches; Bremen arrive winless in their past five with two draws and three losses. Dortmund's recent head-to-head record against Bremen stands at two wins from two meetings. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.
▸Who is the model backing in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Our model's pick is Both teams to score — No (btts), with around 51% confidence. No current price passed the integrity check. 18+. Predictions are informational, not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. begambleaware.org.
▸What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen?
In their last 2 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 2, Werder Bremen won 0, with 0 draws. Both teams scored in 0 of those 2.
▸How can I watch Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Check your local official broadcaster or rights-holder for Bundesliga coverage in your region. SportSignals does not stream matches.
▸Are SportSignals predictions for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen free?
Yes. The model's predictions, odds comparison, stats and head-to-head for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen are free to read. 18+. Predictions are informational, not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. begambleaware.org.
Tips record
Tip decision pending
The pre-match publication window is still open. No Tip has been recorded yet, so this is not a no-Tip decision.
Latest possible publication cutoff · kickoff 9 Oct, 19:30 BST
Broadcaster listings come from our fixture provider, the referee from the fixture appointment, and team news from the clubs' and reporters' own accounts. A fact we do not hold is left out rather than guessed.
Quick answers
What time is Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen?
19:30 UK time on Friday 9 October at BVB Stadion Dortmund, Bundesliga.