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EFL Championship · MW8 St Andrew's Stadium, BirminghamRef: David Webb
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Birmingham 2-2 Middlesbrough result, stats and report

Birmingham
Birmingham
Drew · xG 1.29
2 – 2
FT 07:05
Middlesbrough
Drew · xG 2.39
Middlesbrough
Match review
Next: Cardiff City v Birmingham · Sat 24 Oct · Bolton Wanderers v Middlesbrough · Fri 23 Oct
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Who won Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?

Birmingham 2-2 Middlesbrough, full time in the EFL Championship. Played UK time. Our model's pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals, which did not land.

How it played out

Level at 2–2 when it finished

BirminghamMiddlesbrough

No minute-by-minute record was captured for this match, so the shape of it is not drawn.

Verified final · revision 3 · 07:05Full stats
Match StoryFull breakdown

Birmingham 2–2 Middlesbrough

Birmingham let a lead slip as a Riley McGree own goal and a late Adilson Malanda header earned Middlesbrough a 2-2 draw at St Andrew's, leaving the Blues to rue another afternoon without a clean sheet.

EFL ChampionshipSat 19 Sept, 15:00
Key Takeaways
Result

Birmingham and Middlesbrough drew 2-2.

Goals

4 goals took the match over the 2.5 line.

First Goal
M
45'⚽
Max Arfsten
AAssist: Amario Cozier-Duberry
Game Flow

Expected Goals (xG)

Birmingham 1.29 xGMiddlesbrough 2.39 xG
Cumulative · approximated from goal events
0'45'90'

SportSignals model forecast

Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip

Birmingham to win

37%Missed

Result

Birmingham2:2Middlesbrough

Birmingham v Middlesbrough

Our model leaned Birmingham to win at 37%. Birmingham 2-2 Middlesbrough. Forecast did not match the result.
📊 Match recap and data context

No AI summary available yet for this fixture.

SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.

Birmingham v Middlesbrough · EFL Championship ·

More from this competition: EFL Championship predictions · EFL Championship odds

Player ratings

Who decided it

All 22
  1. Max Arfsten★ MOTM1 goal · 86 min7.6
  2. Liam Millar1 goal · 90 min7.4
  3. Adilson MalandaMiddlesbrough1 goal · 90 min7.3
  4. Amario Cozier-Duberry1 assist · 74 min7.3
  5. Jhon SolísBirmingham1 assist · 90 min7.2

Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

BirminghamMiddlesbroughEFL Championship

The provider forecast gives Birmingham win the highest 1X2 probability at 36.6%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

Birmingham
36.6%
Draw
27.4%
Middlesbrough
36.0%
Both teams to score · Yes
47.9%
Over 2.5 goals
44.2%

Full-time forecast audit: Birmingham win was the highest probability; the match result was draw.

Forecast result checked ·

Tips record

No Tip was published for this match

No selection qualified before kickoff, so there is no paid Tip to settle. The original model prediction and observed prices remain separate audit records.

Final pre-match decision · no Tip to settle

Current alternative Tips will be checked as this section comes into view
Match facts · what the record shows

Pre-match facts retained

The historical evidence saved at kick-off, kept separate from what happened in the match.

Head-to-head evidence

Pre-match historical evidence

  • 0-1is the most common scoreline between Birmingham and Middlesbrough, landing 3 times across 19 league meetings on record.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 9/19recorded league meetings saw both teams score (47.4%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 30league matches at home unbeaten for Birmingham.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 2league matches away from home unbeaten for Middlesbrough.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Birmingham scored first in 3 of their last 10 league matches (30%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Middlesbrough scored first in 5 of their last 10 league matches (50%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Birmingham have averaged 1.5 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Middlesbrough have averaged 1.5 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Phil Neumann has the highest listed average xGOT for Birmingham at 0.56 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Will Lankshear has the highest listed average xGOT for Middlesbrough at 0.82 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot

Immutable kick-off snapshot · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.

Questions about this result

  • What was the final score in Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
    Birmingham and Middlesbrough drew 2-2 in the EFL Championship at St Andrew's Stadium.
  • Who scored the opening goal?
    Max Arfsten opened the scoring in the 45th minute.
  • Who scored in the match?
    Max Arfsten (45'), Liam Millar (55'), Riley McGree (59', og), Adilson Malanda (88').
  • How many bookings were there?
    The referee showed 2 yellow cards.
  • Who refereed the match?
    David Webb officiated.
  • When and where was the match played?
    Birmingham vs Middlesbrough kicked off on Saturday, 19 September 2026 UK time at St Andrew's Stadium.
  • How many corners were there in the match?
    8 corners were taken across the 90 minutes.
  • Did the model call it right?
    No. The published pick was Under 2.5 goals, and it did not land.
  • When do they play next?
    Birmingham play Cardiff City on Saturday, 24 October 2026 UK time. Middlesbrough play Bolton Wanderers on Friday, 23 October 2026 UK time.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.