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UEFA Champions League · MW2Ref: François Letexier
Full time

This match had live commentary, stats and in-play prices; no momentum.

AS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid result, stats and report

AS Roma
Lost · xG 1.34
3 – 4
FT 05:45
Won · xG 1.96
Real Madrid
The Match Review, as soon as it publishes.
Next: Parma v AS Roma · Sat 21 Nov · Real Madrid v Celta Vigo · Sat 21 Nov
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

AS RomaReal MadridUEFA Champions League

The provider forecast gives Real Madrid win the highest 1X2 probability at 39.6%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

AS Roma
37.8%
Draw
22.6%
Real Madrid
39.6%
Both teams to score · Yes
64.4%
Over 2.5 goals
65.3%

Full-time forecast audit: Real Madrid win was the highest probability; the match result was Real Madrid win.

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorewon
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultwon
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalswon
Over 3.5 goalslost
Full-time resultwon
Double chancelost
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveslost

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

38%
23%
40%
37.8%AS Roma
22.6%Draw
39.6%Real Madrid

Both Teams to Score

64%
Yes 64.4%No 35.6%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

65%
Yes 65.3%No 34.7%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
44%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
9.3%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.1%
0-1
6.0%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates AS Roma or draw at 51.7%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 41.0%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 9.9%.

Double Chance

1X
51.7%
12
3.9%
X2
44.4%

Half-Time Result

AS Roma
30.3%
Draw
41.0%
Real Madrid
28.7%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
AS Roma
Draw
Real Madrid
AS Roma
23.2%
4.9%
2.8%
Draw
13.8%
12.8%
12.7%
Real Madrid
2.9%
5.3%
21.6%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
9.9%
No
90.1%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.