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Premier League · MW3 Emirates Stadium, LondonRef: Chris Kavanagh
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea result, stats and report

Arsenal
Won · xG 2.06
2 – 1
FT
Lost · xG 0.21
Chelsea
Next: Nottingham Forest v Arsenal · Sun 18 Oct · Everton v Chelsea · Sat 17 Oct
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

ArsenalChelseaPremier League

The provider forecast gives Arsenal win the highest 1X2 probability at 55.0%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

Arsenal
55.0%
Draw
21.1%
Chelsea
23.9%
Both teams to score · Yes
62.8%
Over 2.5 goals
64.9%

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorewon
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultlost
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalswon
Over 3.5 goalswon
Full-time resultwon
Double chancewon
Correct scorewon
Both teams to score in both halveswon

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

55%
21%
24%
55.0%Arsenal
21.1%Draw
23.9%Chelsea

Both Teams to Score

63%
Yes 62.8%No 37.2%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

65%
Yes 64.9%No 35.1%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
43%

Most Likely Correct Scores

2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.0%
1-0
7.6%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
6.4%
2-2
6.1%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates Arsenal or draw at 67.5%; the most likely half-time state is Arsenal leading at half-time at 43.3%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 14.6%.

Double Chance

1X
67.5%
12
4.0%
X2
28.6%

Half-Time Result

Arsenal
43.3%
Draw
38.9%
Chelsea
17.9%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
Arsenal
Draw
Chelsea
Arsenal
35.6%
4.9%
2.0%
Draw
18.0%
13.8%
7.1%
Chelsea
3.0%
4.2%
11.3%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
14.6%
No
85.4%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.