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Eredivisie · MW5 Johan Cruijff Arena, AmsterdamRef: Sander van der Eijk
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Ajax 1-3 PSV Eindhoven result, stats and report

Ajax
Lost · xG 1.37
1 – 3
FT
Won · xG 1.48
PSV Eindhoven
Next: Hajduk Split v Ajax · Thu 15 Oct · RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven · Tue 13 Oct
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

AjaxPSV EindhovenEredivisie

The provider forecast gives Ajax win the highest 1X2 probability at 43.0%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

Ajax
43.0%
Draw
21.8%
PSV Eindhoven
35.3%
Both teams to score · Yes
69.1%
Over 2.5 goals
70.5%

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorewon
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultlost
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalswon
Over 3.5 goalslost
Full-time resultlost
Double chancelost
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveswon

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

43%
22%
35%
43.0%Ajax
21.8%Draw
35.3%PSV Eindhoven

Both Teams to Score

69%
Yes 69.1%No 30.9%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

70%
Yes 70.5%No 29.5%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
49%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
8.4%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
7.4%
1-0
5.5%
3-1
5.1%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates Ajax or draw at 57.3%; the most likely half-time state is Ajax leading at half-time at 36.9%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 11.8%.

Double Chance

1X
57.3%
12
2.8%
X2
39.8%

Half-Time Result

Ajax
36.9%
Draw
33.1%
PSV Eindhoven
30.1%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
Ajax
Draw
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
26.2%
6.3%
3.8%
Draw
15.6%
11.4%
8.6%
PSV Eindhoven
2.7%
5.0%
20.6%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
11.8%
No
88.3%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.