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Eredivisie · MW8 Johan Cruijff Arena, AmsterdamRef: Serdar Gözübüyük
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen result, stats and report

Ajax
Drew · xG 1.41
1 – 1
FT 07:45
Drew · xG 1.12
NEC Nijmegen
The Match Review, as soon as it publishes.
Next: Ajax v AZ Alkmaar · Sat 31 Oct · SC Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen · Sat 31 Oct
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

AjaxNEC NijmegenEredivisie

The provider forecast gives Ajax win the highest 1X2 probability at 66.8%. A separately qualified SportSignals Tip has an official settlement record for this fixture.

Ajax
66.8%
Draw
17.2%
NEC Nijmegen
16.1%
Both teams to score · Yes
59.7%
Over 2.5 goals
66.4%

Full-time forecast audit: Ajax win was the highest probability; the match result was draw.

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorewon
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultlost
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalslost
Over 3.5 goalswon
Full-time resultlost
Double chancewon
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveswon

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

67%
17%
16%
66.8%Ajax
17.2%Draw
16.1%NEC Nijmegen

Both Teams to Score

60%
Yes 59.7%No 40.3%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

66%
Yes 66.4%No 33.6%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
45%

Most Likely Correct Scores

2-1
9.6%
2-0
8.5%
1-0
8.0%
1-1
7.9%
3-1
7.8%
3-0
6.9%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates Ajax or draw at 72.5%; the most likely half-time state is Ajax leading at half-time at 55.7%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 21.2%.

Double Chance

1X
72.5%
12
3.3%
X2
24.1%

Half-Time Result

Ajax
55.7%
Draw
29.5%
NEC Nijmegen
14.8%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
Ajax
Draw
NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
48.0%
3.4%
1.9%
Draw
18.1%
8.5%
4.4%
NEC Nijmegen
4.6%
3.3%
7.8%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
21.2%
No
78.8%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.