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Across the 5 2026 matches with verified per-match xG, Sarmiento scored 5 from 3.5 expected goals and conceded 11 from 6.8 expected against.
The attack overperformed its chances by 1.5 goals and the defence conceded 4.2 more than expected. Coverage is 5 of 9 matches; missing matches are excluded, never estimated.
Covered sample: 5 scored from 3.5 xG, 11 conceded from 6.8 xGA over 5 matches.
Expected goals measure the quality of chances created and faced, so a persistent gap between goals and xG marks finishing runs or goalkeeping variance rather than underlying strength. Coverage is stated because partial samples must never masquerade as a full season.
A relative strength index across the covered club cohort, not a percentage or a price.
