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Across the 3 2026 matches with verified per-match xG, Instituto scored 2 from 6.8 expected goals and conceded 2 from 1.2 expected against.
The attack underperformed its chances by 4.8 goals and the defence conceded 0.8 more than expected. Coverage is 3 of 9 matches; missing matches are excluded, never estimated.
Covered sample: 2 scored from 6.8 xG, 2 conceded from 1.2 xGA over 3 matches.
Expected goals measure the quality of chances created and faced, so a persistent gap between goals and xG marks finishing runs or goalkeeping variance rather than underlying strength. Coverage is stated because partial samples must never masquerade as a full season.
A relative strength index across the covered club cohort, not a percentage or a price.
