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Across the 3 2025/26 matches with verified per-match xG, Harrogate Town scored 4 from 4.3 expected goals and conceded 2 from 2.9 expected against.
The attack underperformed its chances by 0.3 goals and the defence conceded 0.9 fewer than expected. Coverage is 3 of 10 matches; missing matches are excluded, never estimated.
Covered sample: 4 scored from 4.3 xG, 2 conceded from 2.9 xGA over 3 matches.
Expected goals measure the quality of chances created and faced, so a persistent gap between goals and xG marks finishing runs or goalkeeping variance rather than underlying strength. Coverage is stated because partial samples must never masquerade as a full season.
A relative strength index across the covered club cohort, not a percentage or a price.