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Across the 2 2026/27 matches with verified per-match xG, Estrela Amadora scored 4 from 2.3 expected goals and conceded 4 from 3.9 expected against.
The attack overperformed its chances by 1.7 goals and the defence conceded 0.1 more than expected. Coverage is 2 of 10 matches; missing matches are excluded, never estimated.
Covered sample: 4 scored from 2.3 xG, 4 conceded from 3.9 xGA over 2 matches.
Expected goals measure the quality of chances created and faced, so a persistent gap between goals and xG marks finishing runs or goalkeeping variance rather than underlying strength. Coverage is stated because partial samples must never masquerade as a full season.
A relative strength index across the covered club cohort, not a percentage or a price.
