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Across the 5 2025/26 matches with verified per-match xG, Cheltenham Town scored 5 from 4.1 expected goals and conceded 12 from 6.9 expected against.
The attack overperformed its chances by 0.9 goals and the defence conceded 5.1 more than expected. Coverage is 5 of 10 matches; missing matches are excluded, never estimated.
Covered sample: 5 scored from 4.1 xG, 12 conceded from 6.9 xGA over 5 matches.
Expected goals measure the quality of chances created and faced, so a persistent gap between goals and xG marks finishing runs or goalkeeping variance rather than underlying strength. Coverage is stated because partial samples must never masquerade as a full season.
A relative strength index across the covered club cohort, not a percentage or a price.