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Across the 2 2026/27 matches with verified per-match xG, Celje scored 2 from 3.4 expected goals and conceded 3 from 2.4 expected against.
The attack underperformed its chances by 1.4 goals and the defence conceded 0.6 more than expected. Coverage is 2 of 6 matches; missing matches are excluded, never estimated.
Covered sample: 2 scored from 3.4 xG, 3 conceded from 2.4 xGA over 2 matches.
Expected goals measure the quality of chances created and faced, so a persistent gap between goals and xG marks finishing runs or goalkeeping variance rather than underlying strength. Coverage is stated because partial samples must never masquerade as a full season.
A relative strength index across the covered club cohort, not a percentage or a price.
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