Settlement table
For a home-team draw-no-bet selection:
| Regulation-time result | Settlement | Gross return on GBP 20 at 1.70 | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | Win | GBP 34 | +GBP 14 |
| Draw | Refund | GBP 20 | GBP 0 |
| Away win | Loss | GBP 0 | -GBP 20 |
Gross return on a win = 20 * 1.70 = 34
Net profit on a win = 34 - 20 = 14
Current operator wording controls the qualifying period and voids. Betfair's football rules provide one current settlement reference for football markets.
Fair price from three probabilities
Suppose an illustrative model estimates home win 0.45, draw 0.30, and away win 0.25. The draw returns the stake, so the fair price can be expressed using the home win conditional on a non-draw result:
Non-draw probability = 0.45 + 0.25 = 0.70
Conditional home probability = 0.45 / 0.70 = 0.642857
Fair decimal price = 1 / 0.642857 = 1.555556
The same result follows from (home probability + away probability) / home probability.
Expected value at an offered price
At decimal odds 1.60 for a one-unit home draw-no-bet selection:
EV = (0.45 * 0.60) + (0.30 * 0) - (0.25 * 1) = 0.02
The illustrative expected value is 0.02 units. The draw is included with a zero net payoff; it is not deleted from the state space. OpenStax's expected-value chapter supports weighting each mutually exclusive outcome by its net payoff.
Draw no bet versus related products
| Product on home side | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home 1X2 | Win | Loss | Loss |
| Home draw no bet | Win | Refund | Loss |
| 1X double chance | Win | Win | Loss |
| Asian home 0 | Win | Push | Loss |
Asian handicap 0 and draw no bet share this basic payoff table, subject to the accepted product rules. Double chance does not: its draw is a win.
What the refund does not do
A refund lowers loss exposure in one outcome, but the offered price can compensate for that protection. It does not establish positive expected value, remove model error, or make the selected team more likely to win.
Verification checklist
- Confirm the selected team and qualifying match period.
- Record win, refund, and loss payoffs.
- Keep the draw probability in expected value with zero net payoff.
- Compare the price with probabilities saved before kickoff.
- Check operator rules for abandonment, extra time, and settlement corrections.
Run boundary and sensitivity tests
Check the conditional-price formula at simple boundaries. If draw probability is zero, draw-no-bet reduces to an ordinary two-outcome team bet. If away-win probability is zero, a home draw-no-bet selection cannot lose and its fair price is 1.00 under the idealised model. If home-win probability is zero, no finite positive return makes the home selection favourable.
Then vary all three probabilities while keeping their sum equal to one. A higher draw probability changes the frequency of refunds but does not directly create profit; the home and away probabilities still determine the conditional non-draw contest. Save the full sensitivity table rather than reporting one conditional percentage.
For settlement QA, test a home win, draw, away win, void, and awarded result. Confirm that a draw enters profit as zero, not as a missing row, and that the refunded stake is excluded from gross profit while remaining visible in cash reconciliation.
Next step
Use Draw No Bet for the next part of this topic.
Continue learning
- Next guide: First Goalscorer Betting
- Related guide: Football Card Betting
- Definition: Draw No Bet
Assumptions and limitations
The worked probabilities and prices are illustrative. DraftKings' soccer rules and Betfair are operator examples, not a universal contract. Promotional insurance or enhanced draw products need separate payoff tables.
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